Disastrous Scenarios for Ukraine

90,000 NATO Troops to the Border

The recent announcements and statements concerning NATO training exercises over many thousands of kilometers on or close to Ukrainian and Russian borders, to take place from January through to the end of May, have coincided with statements from both Kiev (Zelenskiy) and Washington (Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence) that without more aid from the USA the Ukrainian army will be defeated in a matter of weeks or months – some speculate that we are talking about a period of two to eight weeks. The Republican Speaker in the House, Mike Johnson, does not appear to be ready to make any grand concessions in his holding off from giving the green light to new attempts to send aid to Ukraine and is still insisting that the Biden Administration needs to do more to secure the southern border of the USA, a position for which I might have some sympathy were it not for the fact that the constant pressure on the border is due, very considerably, to decades if not now centuries of US foreign policy abuses against the peoples of Mexico, central and southern Latin America at a total cost, I am sure, of millions of lives.

Trumpish Anxieties

Increasingly Johnson’s behavior, along with the behavior of the Biden Administration, needs to be understood in the light of clearer evidence that Donald Trump may survive the lawfare war against him from the Democrats (well founded of course, but, when we are talking about the Democratic orchestrators of the Russiagate hoax, and Democratic responsibility for the war in Ukraine, and the genocide in Gaza, who cares?), win the Republican nomination and proceed to trounce Biden (who, of course, should have been replaced with major loss of dignity, months ago).

The Decline of Aid

So it seems highly likely that further aid from the USA to Ukraine will be significantly delayed and, even if and when it arrives, it will be grossly insufficient to enable Ukraine to continue the war and that much of it will go to US armaments manufacturers to ramp up production of weapons that will not actually become available in the field for many months, if not years, by which time the Ukraine crisis will likely be over or significantly transformed and certainly not until after Trump has likely won the 2024 election and put a stop to the war in Ukraine so as to go after what he considers is the really imporant US enemy namely, China, a war on which, he, in turn will waste a great deal more US wealth and credibility. I see that Zelenskiy has invited Trump to Kiev so as to put a stop to the war in 24 hours. Well, I dont think Trump is likely to pick up this opportunity to catch the Zelenskiy curse. Whatever charisma Western media struggled to manufacture for him as a war leader back in 2022 seems to me to have long evaporated. Perhaps Ursula von der Leyen, Rishi Sunak, Georgia Meloni or a plummeting O(l)af Scholz can still conjure up some giddiness.

Warrior Theatrics

It is in this context of insufficiency of US aid, the knowledge that aid from Europe cannot be sufficient just by itself, that European armaments and armies are weak and their arms depleted, that Europe and NATO are doubling down on warrior-like theatrics, and that Biden will be succeeded by Trump, appears more than anything, to be just that – theater, whose principal rationale will be to provide continuing but ever more fragile legitimacy to effete and incompetent, WEF-groomed leaders – amounting, in effect, as Garland Nixon and Alexander Mercouris were arguing yesterday on The Duran, to an attempt to cover up a massive and possibly criminal overinvestment in their failed Ukraine project which was always about dismembering Russia to Western advantage and siphoning off very big bucks to the Western military industrial complex.

Dima of the Military Summary Channel has proposed that a NATO occupation of Western Ukraine, which I discussed yesterday, would be a Plan B to avert global attention from the ongoing collapse of Ukraine, and, in my view, to serve as a basis not for combat (NATO’s 90,000 soldiers no longer seems such an impressive number as against a Russian army of a million or more), but for a “frozen conflict” outcome which, because of course this will not be the result of any actual talking between NATO and Russia, will be disregarded by Russia pending a more satisfactory and permanent solution, one that will be a great deal most costly to NATO. Alexander Mercouris in his broadcast today seems to be disinclined to take such a possibility too seriously. European leaders frame the latest NATO training exercises by saying things to the effect that Russian cannot be allowed to win in Ukraine, which actually confirms their fear that Russia is indeed winning, even if they very little idea as to how, exactly, they can stop it winning. The killing of over 200 French (and other) serving officers and mercenaries in a recent Russian missile attack on Kharkiv not only exposes the extent of existing NATO “feet on the ground” in Kharkiv, but is then simply used by Macron and others to further justify their warrior play-acting.

On the battlefield the evidence seems to confirm an overall offensive posture by the Russians pretty much all along the combat lines. Almost all sources suggest that Ukraine’s position in Avdiivka is steadily worsening, as Russia moves from the south towards the center of the settlement, and also invades from the north. Russia’s advance on Heorhiivka continues; while on the Novomykhailiva fronts things are stable (to its West, Russia bombed a coal mine close to Vodiane). West of Bakhmut, Russia appears to have defeated Ukrainian forces between Ivanivske and Klishchiivka, better enabling it to secure control over each of these two settlement. Russian forces are reported to have secured positions at the eastern end of nearby Bohdanivka, even to have entered the center of this settlement. In the Kupyansk area there are fierce clashes for control over the road leading from Tabaike to Berestove and Krockhmaine. In the words of the pro-NATO Institute for the Study of War: “Russian forces recently advanced on the Kupyansk-Svatove line southeast of Kupyansk. Geolocated footage posted on January 18 shows that Russian forces have advanced in the forest area east of Tabaivka (about 25km southeast of Kupyansk).[60] A prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed on January 19 that Russian forces began a “massive offensive” in this area and advanced up to half a kilometer west of the railway in the direction of Krokhmalne and Tabaivka.”