61st Munich Security Conference in a starkly divided world

From this gathering of diplomatic and defense leaders from all around the world, you often get a sense of the direction of future development, particularly in the military and security spheres. While Russia no longer participates in the MSC, it remains at the forefront of interest this year after U.S. President Donald Trump’s phone call to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

While the European leaders as well as the head of NATO have been frantically working to “shore up” Ukraine militarily, even with the threat of U.S. withdrawal of support, imminent negotiations between Trump and Putin may bring an end to the Ukraine crisis. The development will be warmly greeted by the populations of Europe who have suffered under the measures taken by their governments to “contain” Russia, although their leaders are bristling in the face of the action of the American president.

“Multipolarization” is the theme of this year’s conference, and the organizers have published a lengthy document on their understanding of the concept. Not especially interested in a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis, the document carries on the old worn-out shibboleth of Russian “aggressive” intentions. While recognizing China as a main proponent of multipolarity, it also tries to paint China as a primary rival of the U.S. and Europe, claiming that China is hoping to become a “dominant world superpower.”

The document also predicts that the Trump policy of “making America great again” will cause tensions in U.S.-China relations, while subtly warning that China is seeking to “exploit” many Western nations’ disillusionment with Trump. While there are signs of concern in China over Trump’s latest tariffs on Chinese exports, the possibility that the U.S. might improve its relationship with China in spite of the “China hawks” in the Trump administration has not been ruled out.

China, in contrast to most Western leaders, probably lauds Trump’s phone call to Putin. It has long indicated that it would be prepared to assist in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and Trump has recently indicated that he would like to see China’s help in this matter.

While the U.S. president is not attending the conference himself, he is represented by Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg. So is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who held a talk with Vance on the sidelines of the MSC. Anxious to shore up Ukraine’s shaky position, Zelenskyy has offered to provide the U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earths in exchange for continued military aid.

This year’s Munich event is occurring in a situation of great disarray and any resolution of the Ukraine crisis would remove one of the destabilizing elements. While some European leaders are intent on continuing the conflict, there is a great sense of war weariness in the European countries, most strongly among the people of Ukraine, and it is unlikely that such a policy would gain much headway in the long run.

The strong support China has given to the concept of a multipolar world based on equality and inclusiveness has a strong appeal to the nations that feel alienated by Trump’s muscular messaging, particularly the countries of the Global South. Trump’s determination to distance the U.S. from European problems may also open doors for China for greater cooperation with Europe.

Wang Yi’s recent visit to the UK and Ireland denotes a new sense of cooperation with the European nations. And if the growing trade frictions between the U.S. and China can be reconciled, there is also a possibility of putting new wind in the sails of China-U.S. relations, based on the wish for peace and harmony, which has for so long characterized China’s foreign policy.

Editor’s note: William Jones, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a former Washington bureau chief for EIR News Service and a non-resident fellow of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China. The article reflects the author’s views and not necessarily those of CGTN.