Ukrainian Coup Poker Continues, and Everybody is Playing

Putting aside the details of and the host of other players involved in the game for the moment, the specifics of Hersh’s report raise some interesting questions about one of those players, and that player is not Ukrainian. Hersh claimed that unidentified sources in the US administration had informed him about these talks centered on an agreement that would allow Russia to keep all territory it currently controls in Ukraine – basically Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, and the left bank territories of Zaporozhe and Kherson – in exchange for Ukraine being allowed NATO membership without the right to station or host NATO troops or offensive weapons on Ukrainian territory ( GENERAL TO GENERAL – Seymour Hersh).  

By publicizing what are supposedly secret talks, Hersh has thrown a lit match into an already explosive mix of military defeat, civil-military tensions, Ukrainian and Western war fatigue, and growing public support for Zalyuzhniy over Zelenskiy. The operative element in the story is ‘US government sources.’ It would seem a highly unusual step both for Hersh but especially an anonymous US official to leak such sensitive information, if he/she wanted the negotiations to move forward. In other words, this seems like an attempt to scuttle the Zalyuzhniy-Gerasimov talks in order to prevent an agreement. But such an attempt also exposes Zalyuzhnyi to charges of treason that can be leveled by Zelenskiy and Ukrainian law enforcement and security organs. This is especially true since Zelenskiy has repeatedly rejected peace talks and just a few days reiterated his rejection and intent to continue fighting for the return of all of Ukraine’s 1991 teritory, and since Zalyuzhniy has been questioned in connection with treason investigations of Ukrainian generals, who supposedly had prepared Ukraine’s southern defense against the February 2022 Russian invasion, as I noted in a previous post ( Coup Poker: Ukraine’s Deteriorating Civil-Military Relations UPDATED – Russian & Eurasian Politics).  Crucially, Hersh also reports one of his government sources also had told him that the US government had communicated to Zelenskiy that peace talks would go ahead with or without him. This means that the US stands behind the talks and has handed their conduct over to Zalyuzhniy over Zelenskiy’s objections, and, therefore, Washington presumably has the general’s back. All this occurred as rumors swirl in Kiev, Washington, and Brussels that Zelenskiy will soon fire Zalyuzhniy.

Important questions arise from all this. Is Washington confronting Zelenskiy with the threat of a Zalyuzhniy-led military coup should the Ukrainian president fire his top general or seek otherwise to scuttle the talks? Yes, that is one plausible interpretation of events and jibes with the hapless Biden administration’s need to solve Ukraine in an American election year. Another explanation is that the piece is a US government disinformation leak to Hersh intended by some in Washington to provoke Zelenskiy to move against Zalyuzhniy and/or a military coup, even chaos in Kiev in order to justify some next NATO move. Disinformation could also serve the first purpose of protecting any actual Zalyuzhniy-Gerasimov talks. The least likely but not entirely dismissible explanation is that the leak to Hersh is intended by elements within the Biden administration to scuttle talks the CIA had discovered Zalyuzhniy was involved in and to prompt Zelenskiy to move against his top general. That Zalyuzhniy and Gerasimov are talking is conceivable. Early on in the war Zalyuzhniy noted he had read Gerasimov’s works, and opposing commanders often develop respect, if begrudging, and even affinity for their opponent. However, the details of the agreement being discussed give the fake away. There is simply no way, with its troops having the initiative and gaining momentum, that Moscow would agree to Ukrainian membership in NATO regardless of the conditions supposedly attached that no NATO troops or offensive weapons could be based in the country, as reported by Hersh. After all, as I have written before and after the war began, NATO expansion was the main cause of the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War, which on occasion I have called the “war and against for NATO expansion.” Any disinformation must pass the smell test of corresponding to reality, and the details of the alleged agreement are eminently unreal and appear to render the information of ongoing Zalyuzhniy-Gerasimov talks to be disinformation unwittingly passed on to the public by sterling journalist Seymour Hersh. In any case, the US government leak appears to be an attempt to meddle in and manipulate Ukrainian crisis politics and perhaps to provoke an attempt at a coup by, and/or the arrest of Zalyuzhniy.

On the ground in Ukraine, events were also moving apace. In the hours before Hersh’s Dec 1 publication Zelenskiy was touring the front lines meeting with commanders and top generals such as Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy and Brig. Gen. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, but excluding Gen. Zalyuzhniy, who reportedly visited the southern front region in Kherson, where, incidentally, or not, the supposed treason had occurred.

On December 2, a recording appeared of an apparently hacked telephone conversation between former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko and once Donbass-based Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, in which the former says he is organizing an attempt to overthrow Zelenskiy and implies he has the support of Zelenskiy and the military. Certainly, it is possible that the audiotape, 5 November 2023 is a fake. Even if so, its

emergence suggests that someone is attempting to destabilize the situation. If it is genuine, then the mere fact of its publication is very destabilizing, putting aside the explosive news that Poroshenko and the military are joinинг in a coup plot. This precisely the scenario that in July and September 2022 and again a week ago I proposed might occur (REGIME INSTABILITY IN KIEV? – Russian & Eurasian Politics; https://gordonhahn.com/2022/09/08/zelenskiy-and-zaluzhnyi/; and Coup Poker: Ukraine’s Deteriorating Civil-Military Relations UPDATED – Russian & Eurasian Politics). It is not outside the realm of possibility that this is another fake intended to perform functions similar to those the leaked fake to Hersh were intended. It might also be a fake issued by Zelenskiy’s team designed to discredit Zalyuzhniy by tying him to oligarchs, as some have suggested (Сговор Порошенко и Ахметова – Colonel Cassad — ЖЖ). In the case that it is real, it would be more likely that the Russians rather than Americans or other Westerners hacked the call and published its contents.

On December 3rd an interview was published with Kiev mayor and UDAR party leader Vitalii Klichko, who also was one of the main leaders of the Maidan demonstrations and February 2014 revolt. Klichko sided with Gen. Zalyuzhniy saying he was correct in his analysis of the war as being in a stalemate. Without mentioning Zelenskiy’s name, he implied that he was lying to the people about the war. He was “on his (Zalyuzhniy”s) side” and said it was impossible to keep “euphorically lying” about the war (Кличко заявил, что Залужный сказал правду о патовой ситуации на фронте). Thus, although Klichko stated Zelenskiy should remain in power until the war ends (presumably excluding any elections that for now says will not be held during the war and in which Klichko might himself run) and that after the war everyone should be held responsible for their actions, he can be considered a prospective participant, backer, or neutral bystander in any coup, especially as the situation at the front and in the country as a whole continues to deteriorate. In a previous article I pointed to a combination of Zalyuzhniy, Poroshenko, and Klichko as a powerful potential coup clique (Coup Poker: Ukraine’s Deteriorating Civil-Military Relations UPDATED – Russian & Eurasian Politics).

In addition, on the same day that the Hersh article appeared and one day before the Poroshenko-Akhmetov audio was posted, Zelenskiy’s wife, Yelena, told a podcast of the neocon/deep state The Economist that she did not want her husband to run for reelection, though, it should be noted, Zelenskiy announced there will be no elections in Ukraine until the war ends (Olena Zelenska, Ukraine’s first lady, on the less-visible scars of war and Елена Зеленская не хочет, чтобы ее муж избирался на новый срок). Moreover, a new poll indicated for the first time that Zalyuzhniy’s popularity rating among Ukrainians exceeds that of Zelenskiy. The poll shows Ukrainians 63 percent fully supporting Zalyuzhnyi, 19 percent mostly, while Zelenskiy’s marks are 39 and 33 percent. The poll also indicates that in an election confrontation, Zelenskiy would need a second round to defeat Zalyuzhniy, and Zelenskiy’s margin of victory (42-40 percent) is less than the margin of error (Соцопрос доверия к Залужному и Зеленскому and  Рейтинг доверия населения к Залужному превышает показатель Зеленского — опрос / Новости / Независимая газета).

So it seems a continuation of Zelenskiy’s presidency is under attack from abroad by Ukraine’s key backer as well as at home in Ukraine from some of Ukraine’s most powerful elements and within his very own household. Things in Ukraine are coming to a head rapidly. The truly radical ultranationalists and neofascists of Right Sector, Azov and other ilk — personages like Azov founder Andriy Biletskiy and RS founder Dmitro Yarosh — may still have their say. But one thing is absolutely clear: Everything portends very poorly for the future of Zelenskiy, the Maidan regime, and the Ukrainian state and society.