Defeat in Ukraine, Escalation in the Middle East

Zelenskiy’s Harangues His Own People

Zelenskiy is said to be still manouvering to get rid of his chief commander, Zaluzhnyi, and perhaps to replace him with Kyrylo Budanov, the head of military intelligence, who has no combat experience. This is hardly likely to go down well with the Ukrainian army, possibly ensuring the long-awaited coup against the clown of Kiev, amidst growing evidence of demoralization of ordinary soldiers.

Defeat in Krynky

Dima of the Military Summary Channel today reports that Russia appears to have broken through the Ukrainian defense belt in Krynky and that Ukrainian soldiers are withdrawing from the Krynky foothold, which Russia has already reduced significantly in size, even if some still remain. This suggests that Russia has in effect defeated four Ukrainian marine brigades in this area. Ukraine lost 4,000 to 6,000 soldiers in establishing and holding the foothold, as against a few hundred for Russia. (Ukraine is losing 30,000 dead or severely wounded, overall, every month). There were 400 soldiers on the footprint at the maximum and this was reduced to 100 and is now probably less. The decision to withdraw was the decision of the soldiers themsleves when they realized they could flee along the ice, through the wetlands area that separates the settlement from the Dniepr. However when they get to the Dnieper they must await rescue by boat, and Russia has been hammering Ukrainian boats on the Dnieper itself, while on the tributaries and in the wetlands areas many boats have been caught and stuck in ice-flows, making them even more vulnerable to Russian FPV drone attacks.

Dima speculates that this may be the beginning of the collapse of the Ukrainian combat line throughout, because the defeat in Krynky, he thinks, will release large numbers of soldiers for positioning at other points of the combat line, starting with the Robotyne salient, which Ukraine is already failing to hold under Russian pressure which, in turn, will release even more soldiers for redeployment to Avdiivka, and so on.

Dima asks why Ukraine lost Krynky. Mainly, there was insufficiency of weapons, in very poor weather conditions (less than 20 degrees below centigrade): they had only FPV drones, and these were no match for a Russian arsenal which included many, much more powerful Lancet drones, while Russia was subjecting points of supply on the west bank to heavy FAB bombing and artillery attacks. Further, the FPV drones in the possession of Ukrainian forces on the west bank did not have sufficient range to hit Russian forces in the Krynky area, while Russian forces were attacking Krynky from all sides, including from the forest to the south. There are also reports that Ukrainian soldiers have been propagandized to believe that Russian forces are merciless and they if they are captured they will be tortured and killed.

Other Battlefields

On the battlefields, in addition to the situation in Krynky and Robotyne we see further pressure from Russia on Novomykhailivka, and progress of Russian forces from Solodkye towards Vodiane (east of Vuhledar) and Russian forces are now only five kilometers from the T-05-24 road that connects Vuhledar with Kostiantynivka which itself is highly vulnerable to Russian forces already surrounding Novomykhailivka.

In Avdiivka, Russia is penetrating further into the center, while Ukraine appears to be evacuating from Stepove-Berdychi. Nearer Bakhmut, Russia continues to put huge pressure on Ukrainian forces in and around Bohdanivka. In Kupyansk, Ukraine is engaging in a further evacuation of civilians from the city. Further north still, Russia continues to place great pressure on Khakiv, and there have been 24 Ukrainian evacuations in this area.

Following up on the shooting down of the Russian IL-22 this week, there is concern of Western involvement in this incident, and about attempts by the West to impose flight exclusion zones, amidst ever more exaggerated claims from European leaders as to the dangerous threat that they want everyone to believe Russia represents to the rest of Europe. It is these European powers who are escalating, not Russia. Western journalistic accounts that relay this nonsense are themselves ever more patently propagandistic and unhinged from reality. The idea is to “prove” that Russia is an imperialist power. Rich, coming from countries which have over 500 years history of imperialist murder and pillage and who continue to do it, as evidenced in their support right now of the genocide in Gaza, and in their recent dismemberment or attempts to dismember Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, and their lust to dismember the Russian Federation.

Middle East

Iran has launched missile strikes on Erbil, in Iraq, hitting a Mossad airbase and Kurdish targets, including the residence of a Kurdish businessman who was tied into the military industrial complex. This is a response to the (Israeli, ISIS, MEK?) massacre of mourners at the Suleimani tomb two weeks ago). In addition, Iranian soldiers legally present in Syria in support of the Assad regime, have been regularly targeted, illegally, by Israel for many years. This is occurring amidst what is now three rounds of Western (US and British) missile attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, and has drawn Western claims of an escalation towards war with Iran. Houthis themselves have attacked Western warships and commercial shipping: many of their missiles are intercepted and the damage so far does not seem terribly grave. We have also seen what may be a very counterproductive Iranian attack on an extremist Sunni militia base somewhere in Baluchostan in Pakistan. I say counterproductive because Pakistan has the nuclear power to hit at Middle Eastern targets, that could be an important asset in defense of Iran even if the major threat of Pakistan lies in its power to attack Israel to stop the Gaza genocide, although given its complex but tight relations with the US, this seems very unlikely. Iran, of course, has no nuclear weapon, nor ever has, despite decades of Israeli and Western theater about the Israeli “nuclear threat” (rich coming from the only bloc that has ever used nuclear weapons). There is probably a considerable backstory to this, with which I am not yet familiar. Russia, so far, has been quiet on the current crisis, but has just completed a draft mutual defense pact with Iran.