Springtime for US-Russia Relations

What emerges from the dramatic happenings of the past week is that the three-year chronicle of the U.S.-Russia rivalry and NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine was a crisis engineered with great deliberation by an Anglo-American nexus, with a pernicious agenda conceived by globalist neocon liberals in Washington and London, to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.

In less than a month since President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, in a series of bold moves, he began dismantling the Iron Wall that had descended on Central Europe. Its impact is already visible, as communication channels with Moscow have been flung open, as evident in the new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s call to his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Saturday and their meeting at delegation level in Saudi Arabia Tuesday.

Rubio and the rest of the U.S. team,  including U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and the president’s Middle East envoy (who also works on Ukraine-Russia issues) Steve Witkoff, met a Russian team led by Lavrov Tuesday.

The inclusion of Witkoff, a “result-oriented,” pushy negotiator and old friend of Trump is particularly interesting. Witkoff flew into Moscow for an unpublicised solo visit earlier this month, which appears to have been productive.  Clearly, Trump has drawn lessons from this first term and is determined not to get emasculated again in the Washington “swamp.” This is where Witkoff comes in.

The Trump administration will allow the resumption of normal diplomatic work and will discuss the early return of diplomatic properties unilaterally seized by the Obama and Biden administrations in wanton acts of malignity and hubris, in violation of Vienna accords. Trust Russia to reciprocate!

The readouts in Moscow and Washington, here and here, on the Rubio-Lavrov phone conversation last weekend show that the agreement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin for U.S.-Russian interactive exchanges to improve relations at various levels are being followed through, including “on key international issues, including the situation in Ukraine, developments in Palestine and the broader Middle East, as well as other regional matters.” 

Deep State Loyalists

Trump’s approach and political style is utterly fascinating. Trump began shifting gear no sooner than he managed to put together a team of like-minded people who are “loyalists” to head the Justice Department, Pentagon, the Treasury, etc. — and, importantly, to forcefully regenerate the authority of the attorney general and national intelligence agencies to serve his agenda. 

Thus, in the final analysis, it is immaterial that his administration is packed with pro-Israel figures or has a sprinkling of hardliners on China. For, it is Trump who will call the shots. Surprises could be in store in policy twists and turns. 

This should already give sleepless nights to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu whom Trump has sensitised apropos his intention to improve relations with Iran. To my mind, Trump may not even follow through his dramatic announcement of “taking over” Gaza, et al. 

The pattern appearing with regard to relations with Russia is that Trump levels with Putin first and passes down decisions to the State Department and other agencies to follow through. Equally, the mechanism of summitry is being revived as the locomotive of big-power relations. There is already talk of Trump holding summit meetings with Putin in Saudi Arabia and with China’s leader, Xi Jinping. Trump will likely look for a deal with Xi at some point.

Such an approach necessitates cutting down the role and influence of the Deep State which had throttled Trump’s presidency through his first, 2016-2020 term. 

The challenge facing Trump is formidable, given the nexus between the Democratic Party and the Deep State, and the mischief potential of mainstream media which is largely under their control and hostile towards Trump. 

In a glaring instance last week, The Wall Street Journal misrepresented certain remarks by Vice-President J.D. Vance to vitiate the air in the nascent U.S.-Russia tango. 

According to the story, Vance said that the U.S. might use economic and military leverage against Russia, and the option of sending the U.S. military to Ukraine “remains under consideration” in case Moscow refuses to resolve the conflict in good faith. 

Moscow immediately sought clarification and a rebuttal had to be issued by Vance himself to set the record straight. 

Vance wrote on X: “The fact that the WSJ twisted my words in the way they did for this story is absurd, but not surprising considering they have spent years pushing for more American sons and daughters in uniform to be unnecessarily deployed overseas.”

Trump has repeatedly expressed distrust of U.S. intelligence agencies. According to CNN, all employees (approximately 22,000 people) at the C.I.A. have received emails giving them two options: to continue his/her service without guarantees of job retention in the future or to leave under the so-called deferred dismissal program at their own request, while retaining salary and additional preferences until end-September. 

The disbandment of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which traditionally worked as the “B Team” of the C.I.A. to promote colour revolutions and regime changes, etc. can also be seen in the light. According to Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of U.S.A and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who closely studies this topic, Trump has declared war on the C.I.A., which he blames for his electoral defeat in 2020.

Vasiliev estimates that so far, the fight against the Deep State in foreign and domestic intelligence is proceeding steadily, but will now “accelerate” with the confirmation of former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard as head of national intelligence and Kash Patel as F.B.I. director.

On the other hand, the Delhi grapevine, which is dominated by fellow travellers of the defunct Biden regime, is that the Deep State will ultimately have the last laugh and Trump may not even be allowed to complete his four-year term. But to my mind, that is wishful thinking.

Trump’s grit should not be underestimated. Nor the resources and tools at his command to exploit disarray within the Democratic Party, which traditionally provided the requisite political cover for the Deep State. 

Stirring Up European Politics

There is, conceivably, a method in Trump’s provocative moves, with some able help from Elon Musk and Steve Bannon. Stirring up the pot of European politics, including Germany and Britain, which hold the high ground of Euro-Atlanticism, may fracture liberal-globalist cliques within the trans-Atlantic system.

Patel has hinted that sufficient incriminating evidence of misuse of power is available to damn the Old Guard all the way up to former President Joe Biden himself. 

Trump must be aware of the high importance of pre-empting a Democratic backlash. The federal judges in Democrat-ruled states are openly challenging Trump’s methods. Suffice it to say, Trump’s ability to entrap the Old Guard in a cobweb of protracted litigation will be a game changer.

Polls shows that Trump enjoys a high approval rating so far. The optics of this crusade is going to be hugely consequential to Trump’s ability to push both his domestic and foreign policy programme.

M.K. Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. Views are personal.