17 mins read
The First Draft of the Ukraine War’s History
Washington’s policy-makers showed themselves more wicked and feckless than their Vietnam- and Iraq-era predecessors.
4 mins read
The leaders of China and Russia sought to project a unified front on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine amid U.S. overtures to Moscow seen as attempts to pry the two powers apart.
In a phone call Monday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin described the relationship between their countries as robust and immune to interventions from any third country—an apparent reference to the Trump administration’s recent efforts to engage Moscow.
China and Russia are immovable neighbors and “true friends who share weal and woe, support each other and develop together,” Xi was quoted as saying by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
The ties between the two have unique strategic value and “aren’t aimed at third parties, and aren’t affected by any third parties,” Xi said. “No matter how the international situation changes, China-Russia relations will advance calmly.”
Putin described Russia’s development of ties with Beijing as a strategic choice made with a long-term perspective. He said it “will not be affected by transient events and will not be disrupted by external factors,” according to the Chinese statement, which said the call was arranged at Putin’s request.
Moscow echoed Beijing’s account of the call.
“The leaders particularly emphasized that the Russian-Chinese foreign-policy tie is the most important stabilizing factor in world affairs,” according to the Kremlin. “It is strategic in nature, is not subject to external influence and is not directed against anyone.”
The call came as President Trump pivots Washington toward warmer ties with Moscow, a shift analysts say is driven in part by a desire to drive a wedge between Russia and China.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio led a senior U.S. delegation last week to meet with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia, where the two countries agreed to appoint teams to negotiate a settlement to the war in Ukraine—reversing a three-year American effort to isolate Moscow and back Kyiv’s efforts to resist.
The talks were the most senior-level encounter between U.S. and Russian officials since the start of the war. They included discussions on the possible economic benefits of lifting American sanctions on Russia and improving bilateral ties.
Foreign policy experts have described Trump’s overture as a “reverse Nixon” maneuver, echoing Washington’s attempts in the early 1970s under President Nixon to build bridges with Mao Zedong and deepen a strategic divide between China and the Soviet Union.
During Monday’s call, Putin provided Xi with an update on the Russia-U. S. discussions on the “Ukraine crisis,” according to the Chinese readout, which used Beijing’s preferred description of the war. Xi reiterated China’s willingness to facilitate peace talks and voiced support for Russia’s efforts to “resolve the crisis,” China said.
Xi and Putin also cited discussions on ways to deepen Sino-Russian cooperation, such as jointly celebrating the 80th anniversary of their countries’ victory in World War II, according to the Chinese statement.
Analysts say Russia will likely try to pocket short-term gains from Trump’s overtures while hedging its bets and maintaining close ties with China.
Decades of strained U.S.-Russia relations have led to deep mistrust of Washington among Russian officials who remain wary of how much they can count on a U.S. pivot that may end when Trump leaves office. Moscow’s ties with Beijing have become Russia’s most important diplomatic partnership, spanning military, economic, energy and technological domains.
Even before it invaded Ukraine, Russia had been working to reorient its economy toward China, a process catalyzed by Western sanctions. Moscow owes much of its economic resilience to its oil exports to Beijing, which has been supplying it with everything from electronics to washing machines to tractors. China-Russia trade hit a record high in 2024, at over $244 billion.
China has also become a critical source of optics, drone engines and other materials that enable Russia’s weapons production. More than half of newly sold cars in Russia are from China.
Russia has much more to lose from degrading its links to China than Beijing. While China accounts for around one-third of Russia’s overall trade, Russia makes up only a sliver of China’s. Much of Russia’s exports are made up of oil and natural gas, commodities China can get elsewhere.
That asymmetry in the relationship has made Moscow the junior partner, analysts say, which limits the scope of how much Russia can afford to alienate China.