Macron’s Ukraine peacekeepers idea will inflame tensions

Given his long-held animosity towards Nato troops getting closer to his borders, Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to be thrilled by Emmanuel Macron’s latest brainwave. Discussing the “coalition of the willing” ready to put peacekeeping troops on Ukrainian territory, the French President explained this weekend that “Ukraine is sovereign. If it asks for allied forces to be on its territory, it is not something for Russia to accept or not.”

Macron is entirely correct: as an independent nation, Ukraine can invite whoever it wishes onto its land. Before the full-scale invasion, Kyiv hosted troops from Nato members as part of the Operation Unifier and Operation Orbital training missions. More recently, special forces from various Western nations have operated inside Ukraine, with the Kremlin fully aware. The French leader’s idea is not only possible, but has precedent.

Yet that is not to say that it is pragmatic. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly rejected the prospect of peacekeepers from Nato countries in Ukraine, explaining that their presence would be “unacceptable” to Moscow — even “under a foreign flag, the flag of the European Union or the national flag”. Already dragging his feet on the way to the negotiating table, Putin will be even more reluctant to cease Russia’s war effort if he knows that will beckon Western soldiers. An ex-Kremlin official told the Financial Times last week that the Russian President would consider these deployments as Kyiv gaining “quasi Nato membership”, a prospect so objectionable that he would “rather keep fighting”.

Having publicly made such views clear, the Kremlin would likely react forcefully to having them ignored. Western peacekeepers heading to Ukraine without Moscow’s approval would bring a serious risk of escalation along with them. While all such missions bear a degree of danger, these troops would be particularly vulnerable. An “accidental” strike on peacekeepers, some missing troops, or a few captured soldiers paraded online by Moscow’s local proxy forces would cause diplomatic and domestic headaches for European leaders torn between showing their own worried electorates that they are standing up to the Kremlin and facing the ramifications of wading into a battle with Moscow.

Underlying all of this is the question of America’s reliability. The White House has still not committed to providing a backstop and, even if Donald Trump did promise to clear up Europe’s mess in the event of trouble, Putin knows that this is a US President pulling away from Nato allies and eager for any peacekeeping mission to be entirely European. From Putin’s perspective, revenge for having his views ignored, long-term resentment over Western assistance to Ukraine, and a desire to exacerbate tensions between America and Europe are all potent motivations to test the waters.

So what is the alternative? The former Kremlin official interviewed by the FT indicated that Putin would accept Ukraine entering into bilateral security arrangements with Western countries. Kyiv would likely voice concerns at this being the extent of its protection, remembering how well such agreements worked when it gave up its nuclear arsenal in return for guarantees from the US, UK and Russia. Besides, 29 of Nato’s 32 members have already signed bilateral security arrangements with Ukraine, the G7 having established a framework.

Yet vague provisions to consult with Ukraine within 24 hours of any future Russian aggression could be tightened to promise troop deployments. While Ukraine’s leadership could sell this as back-up being just a phone call away, the Kremlin could spin it as Western forces being many miles from the action.

Macron has a long history of coming up with ideas, some of which actually prove useful. However, in this instance the threat to place Western peacekeepers on Ukrainian soil in spite of the Kremlin’s refusal risks inflaming tensions rather than calming them. The French leader’s suggestion is posturing, not policy.

Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.