What’s In Store For Ukraine

There is no doubt in my mind, that there are plenty of idealistic, good-natured people in Ukraine, who want their country to be progressive, and liberal, and forward looking, and “European.” They are also convinced that it is big bad Russia that prevents them from achieving their goal.

These people (some of whom speak English, because their well-connected or well-healed parents sent them to Europe to study) are the face of the “New Ukraine.” They go on TV or radio and report about “great patriotic unity and determination,” about democracy, modern institutions of tolerance and acceptance that are taking the root in the country, and all other things that people in the West want to hear.

Well, all this is a dream, and what they are doing is passing the dream for reality. In other words, they are, wittingly or not, serving as counterfeiters.

And what is the reality, and how do I know it? Well, nobody knows the whole thing, of course, but if one has enough info coming from all sorts of sources and if this info forms a particular pattern that fits other socio-political patterns known to us through history much better than any dream peddled to BBC by some of the Kievan regimes spokespeople, that we can at least approximate the reality.

So what exactly is this reality?

Ukraine is very corrupt country, whose elites are more than happy to take their money and park them elsewhere. Fine, many countries do that, but when this elite sends their children abroad while common Pavlo or Stepko are sent to die at the front, that is already a cause for division.

There are other highly powerful causes for division. Ukraine is not a unified country, in the manner of say, Poland. Ukraine has many more religions, nationalities, languages, social and political systems and economic levels, from industrial in the east to peasant in the west.

Only highly skillful politician or political system can unite all these diverse interests. Ukraine, unfortunately, never had such a system or tradition thereof, nor did they have such politicians. What they’ve tried to do in recent years is to have certain balance, now the President comes from the West, now from the East. But the events of 2014 put an end to it. And now we have sloppy politicians who tried to shove down people’s throats a particular vision of Ukraine: that of Lviv maniacs: peasants who’s been peasants under Austro-Hungary, and who want to impose their peasant backwardness and penchant for village traditions upon the rest of the country.

Ukraine has another cultural tradition, however. During the military campaigns, all these stubborn, independent, entrepreneurial, energetic Cossacks, might get united to achieve their military goal. For that reason, Russian attack was a god-sent. It temporarily united what was irredeemably cracked. But that unity is highly superficial, and again, only these naive kids who speak good English believe in it. Underneath it, the tensions remain and grow.

There are poor people in Russian-Speaking areas of Ukraine, who just want to leave in peace, not caring under what regime. There are poor people in Western parts of Ukraine, whose children and fathers are fighting and being decimated. There are civilians who live under bombs. All these people are well aware that.

1. Their leadership are corrupt and incompetent.
2. Their leadership sent their kids and wives to Poland, Israel or Germany.
3. Their leadership uses the pain and suffering of these common poor people to get more weapons and more kick-backs, and are therefore interested in prolonging the war, that can’t be won. And that’s known both to common people and honest military commanders.

So that’s the reality, but since it is highly beneficial to a lot of powerful people both in Ukraine and the West to maintain the facade, to focus on a dream rather than reality, this war will continue. Common people will suffer for someone else’s cynicism or naivete, but that’s how it’s been for ages.

In the meantime, prepare yourself for more fantasies, lies, and fake accusations against Russians, coming from Ukraine. More grand standing coming from Western Politicians, more obfuscation and propaganda coming from the western media.

I suspect that Kiev regime will finally negotiate the peace only when:

1. Westerners would say it is enough and it is not worth it.
2. Ukrainian population would get so angry with the leadership that it will start leaning toward Russia, so once the danger of losing even more territories finally sinks in, Ukraine would decide to cut its losses and settle on something.