So far Russian President Vladimir Putin is the biggest winner in the Ukraine crisis by converting some heavy-duty sabre rattling into real political leverage. He has succeeded so well because US President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders draw political benefits from opposing or defusing the Russian leader’s unspoken threat to invade.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might come “any day now,” the Biden administration warns, with intelligence rumors marking Wednesday as a likely date. If Russia does invade, the United States and its allies have pledged to impose “severe economic sanctions” on Russia.

The people now gunning for a showdown with Putin were gunning for a showdown with Saddam Hussein two decades ago—with the same promises of a happy outcome.

If the Nordic country was able to have a tense but peaceful relationship with the Soviet Union, then so can Ukraine with Russia.

The US risks embarrassing itself and its intelligence if Russia chooses an option other than invasion

For all the talk of our commitment to Ukraine, hitting the panic button and needlessly pulling officials out doesn’t inspire confidence.

The crisis in Ukraine is becoming what I have always thought of as “a powder keg story.” This has long been my private shorthand for a calamitous event, usually a war or a revolution, which governments and news outlets bill as imminent and probably inevitable, while the reporters on the ground discover that nothing much is actually happening.

But they have no trouble issuing endless warnings to prepare for the imminent Russian invasion, which for some reason never comes

Today we face an avoidable crisis that was predictable, actually predicted, willfully precipitated, but easily resolved by the application of common sense.

A look at Ukraine’s distant and recent past reveals a complex and dangerous example of the risks posed by a world where superpowers are once again clashing.