Collapsing Defensive Lines and Offensive Dreams in Ukraine

THE KURSK FAILURE

Ukraine’s Kursk incursion is a disaster for Ukraine. As I recently demonstrated, it has not achieved and will not achieve any of its goals (https://gordonhahn.com/2024/09/14/the-nato-ukraine-defeat-in-kursk-and-beyond/). In Kursk, Ukrainian troops are about to be encircled and the home front fatally weakened as a result. More importantly, the home front – that is the front line arching from Kherson to Kharkiv is collapsing everywere, with Russian advances steadily accelerating almost everywhere. I wrote in early June that the Russians did not (and probably still do not) have their eyes on Kharkiv and may not have been attempting even to create a border buffer zone. The main goal of the Kharkiv-now Sumy offensive has been for now to stretch out the length oft he entire front and thereby Ukraine’s already thinning forces. I added that one should „look to the south in midsummer for offensives in Kherson and/or Zaporozhia.“ (www.facebook.com/gordon.hahn1/posts/pfbid0k8SxGdSSmnfiukNa39DJDHM3XgnRwnUsF98L64qJwpDhgy9uSKCWqUa8mrXBSTU4l).I was just about two months early. The Russians are about to begin an offensive in the south in Zaporozhe that may fatally extend the front line beyond what the Ukrainian army can bear (https://t.me/rezident_ua/24385). The Russians may begin ‚large arrow‘ offensives at weak points further thinned out by the stretched out line. Russian forces are already encircling Russian Ukrainian troops in Kurakhovo and Vugledar (Ugledar) on the southern Donetsk front and on the central Donetsk front have advanced 40 kilometers west since seizing Bakhmut in May and are about to lay siege to the strategic hub of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk). The inevitable taking of Pokrovsk opens a clear road to Pavlograd and on to the Dnieper River.  

To add to Ukraine’s woes, the Pentagon has said it is scraping the bottom of the barrel of potential military weapons supplies it can send to Ukraine (https://ctrana.news/news/472170-u-pentahona-zakanchivaetsja-oruzhie-dlja-ukrainy-snn.html). The Pentagon will not be able to send any significant weapons to Kiev, as its own stores are low. Production will have to ramp up to deliver and that will take time. The same is true for the rest of NATO, members of which can only send outdated, if not obsolete weapons. Ukraine’s collapsing front lines and limited weapons supplies for any hope of stabilizing them has led to another ‘last throw of the dice’, seeking yet further escalation in the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War.

MISSILES 

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy has been seeking Western approval for the use long-range missiles against targets deeper inside Russia, pre-2014 Russia. Western permission to do so will not save the Ukrainians from defeat. Most key Russian targets will remain out of range of U.S. ATACMS and JSSAMS and British-French Storm Shadows, and most will be shot down. Drones have proven an effective means for hitting Russian arms depots and the like deeper inside Russia. So the only serious change the lifting of the prohibition will be to cross the red line between covert and over NATO involvement in its war to protect its ‘right’ to expand NATO wherever and whenever it wants, forcing Moscow to regard NATO as a combatant in the war and thereby a legal target for its own missiles. Contrary to some of the more alarmist assessments, however, Putin will not hit European, no less American targets in their respective homelands in response, and certainly not use nuclear weapons in response to a few conventional missile attacks. Rather, he will hit Western military and other interests using proxies such as the Houthis, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran, supplying them with Russian weapons, intelligence, and operational planning as NATO is doing for Kiev. Those parties that already have Russian weapons can be expected to be given more powerful ones than they might possess at present. Another possibility is to attack US satellites gathering intelligence and performing other military functions. Horizontal or asymmetrical escalation internationally will be accompanied most likely by vertical escalation in Ukraine, which might include a declaration of war and more generalized warfare, including the targeting of Kiev and Maidan Ukraine’s leaders. All this might come despite a Western lifting of the missile prohibition; Kiev hit four ammunition depots deep inside Russia proper last week. 

VICTORY PLAN

Zelenskiy has brought with him to Washington a plan to justify such a decision on long-range missiles militarily. This new, more grand ‘Victory Plan’, he deliriously claims, can bring victory or force Putin to the bargaining table. Although the points of the Victory Plan remain largely secret, some details have been leaked or hinted at: Ukraine’s admission to NATO immediately (or perhaps by year’s end), initiation of NATO’s Article 5, and NATO’s direct entry into the war, even with boots on the ground. This will surely include the lifting of the missile prohibition and massive new military and financial assistance to Ukraine’s armed forces, even as NATO forces engage Russian forces. Of course, all of this is in Zelenskiy’s mind. One can imagine his arguments to US President Biden and NATO: ‘If you (the West) intend to accept us one day, then why not now and only after we defeat Russia. This is a Catch 22. We cannot defeat Russia without NATO forces fighting beside us. This means no Ukrainian membership and ultimately perhaps no Ukraine. You say, Putin is intent on moving west after conquering Ukraine. Then what are you waiting for? We must all unite and fight the Hitler of the 21^st century now, before it is too late for us all.’

One Ukrainian source on Telegram, which some in Kiev want to shut down, states that Zelenskiy’s head of the Presidential Office (PO), essentially Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Andrey Yermak has noted this Plan’s ‘logic.’ According to the source, which claims to have sources inside the OP, Yermak says that Ukraine’s main goal now is to to draw NATO into direct confrontation with Russia. Only this, he believes, will allow Ukraine to join the alliance and win the war. There are no alternatives to this scenario. Reserves and equipment are at critical levels, and so, he thinks, Ukraine can not withstand a protracted war and needs to look for ways to escalate the war and provoke the Kremlin (https://t.me/rezident_ua/24380). 

This Plan is both a delirious pipe dream as well as a calculated stealthy attempt to influence — one might say, interfere in — the US election, return Ukraine to the front pages, spark a debate over policy, and hope that translates into bringing Zelenskiy’s latest dream to fruition. Surely, if the Plan is publicized, it will raise American war hawks into a frenzy, with the publishing of a mountain of articles supporting the Plan or fulfilment of some of its points. If the debate fails to bring fulfilment of the Plan in the period designated by Zelenskiy necessary to salvage the war effort – October-December – then it may be hoped by Zelenskiy and his cohorts that it will influence the election discourse and perhaps outcome, leading to Trump’s defeat and election of the war party, the Democrat Party-State-led, supported by neocon Republican allies. Indeed, the Kamala Harris campaign has been emphasizing Ukraine in its propaganda in key swing states such as Pennsylvania, and the Democrat-controlled media is helping (www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/volodymyr-zelensky-has-a-plan-for-ukraines-victory; www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/polish-american-voters-seen-key-winning-both-harris-trump-rcna171685; https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/harris-hopes-turn-ukraine-war-winning-issue-battle-113831627; and https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-polish-american-voters-trump-4a0bb4126ab2ded70cf78bb76501d7d9). Right on cue, Zelenskiy’s first visit after arriving in the US was to Pennsylvania, where he met with political and military-industry leaders (https://x.com/GovernorShapiro/status/1837998776218194136). Zelenskiy announced he would be presenting his Victory Plan to “America, President Biden and Vice President Harris and Donald Trump (https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1838168411446108636). He who rejects it will be subject to a storm of Democrat Party-state and US media attacks, heating up the presidential campaign precisely in order to boost US support for the war and sentiment for entering it directly. I will not be surprised if this is a propaganda campaign orchestrated jointly by the Biden-Harris and Zelenskiy administrations.

Overall, however, it is clear that Zelenskiy is thrashing about, seeking a way out of the Ukrainian catastrophe that awaits should he continue the war, and the personal and perhaps also general Ukrainian catastrophe that awaits should he seek to suit for peace, as the country’s numerous ultranationalists and neofascists will certainly attempt to rise in revolt should peace talks with the hated ‘Moskal’ — no less with the most hated of them all – Putin — be broached. At the same time, others may move against him for refusing to begin talks with Moscow. Aside from American politicians, there is no politician in the world today in a more precarious position than Zelenskiy. It must be said that he has walked the tight rope well over the last year and a half, and the Ukrainians have been creative and brave. But there is a fine line between bravery and stupidity, and I have doubts Zelenskiy sees that line.

THE HOME FRONT BEGINS TO CRUMBLE

Back home grumbling is growing inside Zelenskiy’s government. He fired some six ministers a few weeks ago and then his energy company (UkrEnergo) chair last week. Among the six ministers was Foreign Minister Dmitriy Kuleba, who reportedly came into conflict with OP chief Yermak (https://ctrana.news/news/471547-zapadnye-smi-pishut-o-vozmozhnykh-prichinakh-uvolnenija-kuleby.html). At the same time his Head of the Office of the President (OP) fired the deputy heads of the Main Military Intelligence (HRU) chief, the ambitious and creepy Kirill Budanov, without his knowledge, unleashing a firestorm. The same day this was reported, September 21^st, it was reported that Zelenskiy was preparing to fire Budanov and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, another shadowy figure (https://ctrana.news/news/472355-rustema-umerova-i-kirilla-budanova-mohut-otpravit-v-otstavku.html). Reportedly, internal OP polling shows Budanov’s ratings rising, as Yermak has been attempting to clear the political playing field of all challengers to his boss (except for himself), which strengthens the increasingly powerful Yermak, and Budanov’s popularity has been rising in recent months (https://t.me/rezident_ua/24400; https://t.me/rezident_ua/24399; and https://t.me/rezident_ua/24394). The Budanov threat to the Zelenskiy camp, real or perceived, is heightened by his being a creature made by the CIA (https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001pvh7zNuvk9sG1Z_xPjXHBmVlP4sgLFzVG_ZsnatlSHVXTeBeDPntUyToye_h1dkS2-34ofEboTDGB8T6NH7mjewLFsC83M7_agtWG45oHqMkCqm99cuGNhXeq2D3gQ-DAn9wYGSKqCm4s0IpRBckiFqKZnQ6gkjnVWlBdCiCop2QDOL0gPrAVm8cV-Gt9PsCMdUrEjeHFooGJdFjSCiNMHIPwT-xjRnmgWAdb4zYX3XoZZ9splZgOA==&c=_c-56anW6yQKbUHOvdmpR5Jlr5aGtDKIjFhKA_dsMxFDwPRDZBpQGg==&ch=NSBYJsncXxolDQfb9F2xmUKUyF5mqXsQrBBQaehit6Yd4tSDUVxh7Q==). Thus, it is being reported that Yermak will be raising the issue of Budanov’s removal from the HRU and replacement by his client Oleg Ivashcenko (https://t.me/rezident_ua/24413).

Zelenskiy remains in conflict with the military. Former Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valeriy Zaluzhniy let it be known to the US outlet Politico that he and another top general opposed the Kursk operation, which was apparently in planning before his (and the other general’s firing (www.politico.eu/article/kursk-russia-incursion-objections-war-in-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy/). In this way, a major potential threat to Zelenskiy’s rule has raised its head again, as Ukraine’s and thus Zelenskiy’s war crisis deepens. Moreover, Zelenskiy has been at odds with his present Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskiy, and there are rumors his sacking may not be too far in the offing, as the front lines crumble under his watch. Ukrainian Rada deputy Maryana Bezugla, a key member of Zelenskiy’s party, Servants of the People, has been calling for Syrskii’s resignation in August and September, with rumors circulating she was doing Zelenskiy’s bidding. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-17/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-kyiv-s-allies-start-to-look-at-how-it-could-work?srnd=all&embedded-checkout=true). Syrskii supposedly opposed the Kursk operation in favor of a counteroffensive at Pokrovsk (https://t.me/rezident_ua/24321). Bezugla appears to have exceeded her writ by revealing too much about the disastrous state of affairs on the battle fronts. She was fired in mid-September from the Rada’s Defence and Security Committee and transferred to the parliament’s International Affairs Committee. But she has not ceased in revealing the truth about the collapsing front. Recently, she noted: “I’m coming back from Donetsk region once again. There are no fortifications beyond the Sentinel Yar, Konstantinovka is not ready for defense. Kurakhovo too. Selidovo inside the city was completely unprepared for defense, now they are feverishly trying to do something. There are no borders beyond Ugledar, and the chaos created by Syrsky in the 72nd brigade due to the removal of the brigade commander at the peak of the Russians’ offensive and the non-priority replenishment of the priority unit now makes the loss of Ugledar a matter of time.” According to Bezugla, brigades of recently mobilized, often coercively so, “who have not participated in the battles and are flee because of fear and lack of training,” are being sent to replenish the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions.” The predominantly mobilized officers of these brigades do not know even basic things. Nevertheless, the authorities continue with this, instead of making the replenishment of combat brigades the priority, she asserts. Although, according to Bezugla, the construction of fortifications around Pokrovsk and Mirnograd has begun, it is “an initiative on the ground” — in other words, a local initiative (https://t.me/rezident_ua/24408). In this way, Bezugla may be moving from criticism simply of Syrskiy and the General Staff to that of the civilian leadership as well, because such revelations discredit both the military and civilian leaderships.

All this while Zelenskiy’s popular approval ratings are overwhelmingly disapproving. The latest evidence comes from the falling ratings of Zelenskiy’s daily vidoes as well as the government’s main propaganda mechanism, the television marathon, run daily on Ukrainian television (https://t.me/rezident_ua/24395).

Conclusion

When Ukrainian forces are encircled in, killed in, and/or run out of Kursk, when Pokrovsk and Vugledar have fallen, when all of Donetsk and Luhansk have been captured, and Russian forces are advancing on Pavlograd, the last possible stronghold before the Dnieper, as 2024 comes to a close either Zelenskiy or Syrskiy will be the scapegoat. Indeed, one cannot exclude both will be targeted in a neofascist-led or other form of putsch. Moreover, by that time Kiev had better have some new instrument with which to fight or else the end will be very near indeed.