Is Trump positioning for a ‘no-deal’ with Russia — or not?

Here is his opening:

“Trump’s rhetoric about Russia having lost 1 million men in the Ukraine conflict is not just nonsense — the real number not even reaching 100,000 — but his resort to it underlines that the usual meme of Trump being just woefully misinformed is looking less and less plausible.

“After touting the 1 million Russian deaths, Trump then suggests that Putin is destroying Russia by not making a deal. Adding (seemingly as an aside), that Putin may have already made up his mind ‘not to make a deal’.

“Instead, in a curiously disinterested way, Trump remarks that negotiations would depend entirely on whether Putin is interested or not. He further claims that Russia’s economy is in ruins, and most notably says that he would consider sanctioning or tariffing Russia, if Putin does not make a deal. In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump writes, ‘I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR’.”

I stand by my conclusion that a major source of Trump’s false claims about massive Russian casualties and a woeful economy is the intelligence community–specifically, the CIA and the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). The bulk of the intelligence presented to President Trump in the Presidential Daily Brief comes from the CIA. However, the DNI has the responsibility for preparing and delivering that brief. Trump did not come up with this inaccurate information on his own. We have now former CIA Director, Bill Burns, on the record with the Washington Post’s David Ignatius making the following claim:

“The CIA estimates that Russia has suffered more than 700,000 casualties over the past three years, 10 times what it lost in Afghanistan over a decade.”

Armed with false information that Russia is suffering terribly, it is no surprise that Trump believes that Russia would want a deal. I am working some channels to warn Trump that he is being lied to. Whether he heeds my warning is another thing. This would not be the first time I warned Trump about nefarious intelligence activities. Donald Trump tweeted this on April 24, 2019:

I was right then and I am on target now.

The Russian Foreign Ministry is very clear on what it wants in any negotiation with Donald Trump:

“Russia is against freezing the Ukrainian conflict, it will be used by the West to arm Kiev and try to take revenge.

• If the US under Trump takes into account Russia’s interests, the dialogue between Moscow and Washington will gradually be restored, if not, “everything will remain as is,” Lavrov said.
• Trump’s return to the White House seriously changes the political landscape, but one should not expect any radical shifts;
• Russia has no illusions about the Trump administration and will not be “fooled” by the new president, who has surpassed his predecessors in terms of sanctions;
• Russia considers Trump’s desire to establish direct communication with Moscow “commendable”;
• NATO’s hypocritical and provocative policies lead to an increase in the degree of escalation and increase the risk of a direct clash between Russia and the alliance;
• Russia does not consider Italy as a possible participant in the peace process in Ukraine; if Rome wants to contribute, it should stop arming Kiev.

“We had Minsk to resolve issues which Ukraine refused to adhere to, and which Germany/France were a party to but who didn’t coerce Ukraine into following their obligations. What did Ukraine, US, Canada, UK, and EU instead do? They trained and armed Ukraine.

“Yet in Western media we hear the view that it is Russia who would use this time to retool and start the war again, but if that is the case then why are they trying to persuade Russia to stop moving forward and come to the table. A military moving forward is not the one who needs to rebuild it’s military.”

Whether intended or not, Trump’s opening gambit with Moscow and Putin is a dead end. Putin will talk with Trump, but he will not succumb to threats or bullying. Trump better bring flowers and box of candy. Putin ain’t interested in a one-night-stand.