In an interview with 'Le Monde,' the general asserts that the Ukrainian incursions into Crimea are just the 'beginning.' He also admits to a certain war-weariness among the population, and considers the shortage of soldiers to be 'significant, but not alarming.'
In war-torn Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, 38, head of the Ukrainian military intelligence service (GUR), has established himself as a major figure in the conflict. He is one of the few Ukrainian officials to have predicted the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, specifying that it would take place “at 5 am.” Living with his wife in a protected base at the time, he remembers watching the hands of the clock turn that night. “I didn’t want this war, but I’m responsible for this kind of information. Such a mistake would not have been acceptable,” he said.
Since then, a live frog has been keeping him company in his office at the base where he still lives. Budanov’s background speaks for itself: a whole life transformed into a special operation. After graduating from the Odesa military academy in 2007, he immediately joined the elite GUR forces, a vocation. Wounded several times in covert operations from the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2014, and the target of numerous assassination attempts, the young major general was appointed head of the GUR by the president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in 2020.
His Western counterparts sometimes compare Budanov’s GUR to the Mossad of the 1970s, Israel’s external intelligence service, a parallel he does not reject. “The times are different, but we’re ready for firm action,” he said.
Since then, a live frog has been keeping him company in his office at the base where he still lives. Budanov’s background speaks for itself: a whole life transformed into a special operation. After graduating from the Odesa military academy in 2007, he immediately joined the elite GUR forces, a vocation. Wounded several times in covert operations from the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2014, and the target of numerous assassination attempts, the young major general was appointed head of the GUR by the president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in 2020.
His Western counterparts sometimes compare Budanov’s GUR to the Mossad of the 1970s, Israel’s external intelligence service, a parallel he does not reject. “The times are different, but we’re ready for firm action,” he said.
In the current phase of the war, the audacity of his clandestine operations, launched ever more deeply outside Ukraine’s borders, sometimes grates on the nerves of his foreign partners. On November 28, 2023, Budanov’s wife, Marianna, fell victim to an attempt at heavy metal poisoning.
Q: Bombing raids on an unprecedented scale have just hit Ukraine, on December 29, 2023 and this January 2. Has the war entered a new phase?
This may come as a surprise to you, but the reason for these strikes is very mundane. At the Russian Ministry of Defense, they were taking stock of 2023: They wanted to post something quickly so they could proclaim the year victorious and move on to the next. But they had no real military success. Given the huge stockpiles of missiles on their side, the option was obvious. It was our military infrastructures that were targeted, with high-precision missiles, but these suffer from many defects. They often miss. We immediately sent them our response.
Q: And what was your response?
Attacks on their military structures. Of course, I can say no more.
The defense industry plays a vital role in a war of position, which is particularly demanding in terms of ammunition and equipment. What are the production capacities in Russia and Ukraine?
As far as the quantity of weapons produced is concerned, there has been a big increase in Russia compared with previous years, which has been noticeable since the end of the summer of 2023. I’m not talking about what they receive from other countries, but from their domestic industry. But in terms of quality, there has been a drop.
Ukraine is also trying to increase its production. Although we don’t have the same volumes as Russia – our countries are different sizes – we do face the same problems as them in this area: we have few high-tech components and we lack qualified managers. The war is affecting this sector, with skilled personnel being mobilized in the army.
Q: The ground front now seems to have come to a standstill following the results of the Ukrainian counter-offensive this summer. Is this really the case?
On both sides, the intensive use of attack drones has made both Russian and Ukrainian offensives impossible. Drones have been the novelty of recent years. Another factor was the density of minefields, unprecedented since the Second World War. This aspect had been forgotten.
We know the solution to drones: electronic countermeasures. As for mines, specialized equipment is required. This brings us back to the question of production capacity: the processes are linked. Nothing is insoluble, but everything has to be taken into account.
In an interview with “The Economist” on January 1, President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that the conflict would refocus on the Black Sea. What is your analysis?
Let’s look at the facts: The northern part of the Black Sea is under Ukrainian control, along with the gas extraction platforms. The maritime grain export corridors, which are very important for our economy, are once again operational, even if there are risks due to the war.
For our part, we are regularly attacking our enemy’s fleet and port facilities. The Russians have had to move everything in a hurry to the southeast. They’re trying to set up a naval base at Ochamchira on occupied Georgian territory [Abkhazia] on the Black Sea. In 2023, the first Ukrainian incursions took place in temporarily occupied Crimea, when some thought them impossible. And this was just the beginning. This gives hope, especially to the Ukrainians in Crimea who have been living under Russian occupation for 10 years, and many of whom were beginning to lose heart.
Q: You give the impression of gauging the situation with a great deal of confidence. Has nothing surprised you in this war?
A certain Russian paradox surprised me. Everyone thought that Moscow had a strong army and a weak economy. It turns out that the opposite is true. The army sucks. On the other hand, the economy may be weak, but the country is not starving, far from it. It could even last quite a long time at this rate. Current Western sanctions are not enough, or at least not in the very long term. They would have to affect their main economic sectors, hitherto spared, such as energy, metallurgy and the financial system as a whole.
Q: What could turn the tide?
Let’s start by talking about arms deliveries, and here I’m simply referring to artillery systems. It’s no secret that NATO warehouses are full of them. We’re short of shells and anti-aircraft systems. The debate is not just about hypermodern technologies. We’re interested in everything, including older systems and those no longer in use. The question of quantity is also important. Secondly, the Ukrainian economic sector needs support to guarantee the country’s stability. The other questions concern Ukraine alone.
Q: What are these questions?
We need to improve the army recruitment process and communicate better with the population to increase motivation. Unfortunately, we have problems in this area, and we have to face up to them, as we can see from the current controversy over the next mobilization law.
The war began 10 years ago, the full-scale invasion since 2022, and fatigue is manifesting itself at both individual and societal levels. I’m not criticizing, the phenomenon is understandable. But the lack of soldiers is becoming significant, even if it’s not alarming. The main thing is to find solutions, and we’ve got there in good time. With some changes, perhaps, Parliament should pass the law.
Q: Are you also sensing weariness among your Western partners?
If the question is: Will this weariness affect the front line? The answer is no. Those who think they’re tired of Ukraine abroad are going to have to court the Russians when they come to occupy their own territories. Russia isn’t just waging war against Ukraine, it’s waging it against NATO, as their propaganda has repeated from the start. Every day I read Russian [secret] reports, received through various channels. Every one of them mentions strikes against NATO bases, specifying that there were 50 Poles, 30 Frenchmen, and so on. They know it’s not true, but that’s the information they pass on. Moreover, the Russian POWs tell us how surprised they are not to have met any NATO soldiers. In their minds, they’ve come to wage war against them, and Ukraine is only the first step.
Q: Some people are beginning to call for negotiations. Is this an option for you today?
It’s not the right time. Negotiations begin when one or both parties have an interest. This is not the case.
