Meeting courses: what the Russian and US presidents will talk about at the summit

One of the central topics of the upcoming dialogue will be Ukraine, experts say

Alexey Zabrodin via

For the meeting of the presidents of Russia and the United States, a well-developed agenda is needed so that the negotiations have a chance to end in a constructive way, the Federation Council told Izvestia. At the same time, the venue of the summit, which the media are trying to predict, will not affect the results of the dialogue between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, since the main role in such issues is played by the substantive part of the event and the preparatory work, according to politicians and experts. According to experts, the main topics of the upcoming meeting will be Ukraine, arms control and security, cyberspace and the diplomatic bilateral crisis.

To your places
When Joe Biden proposed to Vladimir Putin in a telephone conversation on April 13 to hold a summit “in the coming months”, a number of countries immediately expressed their readiness to provide a platform for negotiations. Helsinki and Vienna have traditionally been among the first to express their desire to give the dialogue between Russia and the United States a place and time. In addition, the organizers of the Munich Security Conference were not averse to holding a summit meeting, as Izvestia wrote. And even the Czech authorities were quick to remind of the opportunity to take advantage of the hospitality of Prague. However, although the latter is still among the potential organizers of the summit, after the espionage scandal between Russia and the Czech Republic and the mutual expulsion of diplomats, Prague’s chances of success have seriously diminished.

Recently, the influential American publication Politico, citing American officials and experts, published an expanded list of cities that could become a meeting place for Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden. Among others, Reykjavik, Ljubljana and Baku were also included. One way or another, but both Moscow and Washington still continue to claim that the place and time have not been determined, calling for waiting for official announcements.

Vladimir Dzhabarov, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia that the city where the talks can take place is not a matter of priority. The venue of the event is more technical in nature and should suit both sides from the logistical and other sides, which means that it is a matter of coordination. The agenda of the summit is much more important. According to the senator, experts are now actively working on the content part, because without careful preparation of negotiations, it is almost impossible to reach any specific agreements, and “meeting for the sake of meeting” does not make much sense.

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the venue of the summit will not matter much, according to the president of the American University in Moscow, Eduard Lozansky. Due to the coronavirus, the negotiations will probably take place in an” isolated mode”, which means that direct access to the meeting by the public and journalists will be very limited, the expert explained to Izvestia.

Now the media is actively discussing the possibility of negotiations in mid-June, when Joe Biden is going to fly to Europe for the NATO summit. According to the head of the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Valery Garbuzov, usually the place is chosen in such a way that it is convenient for both sides. However, this time, most likely, the negotiations will also be tied to the trip of the American president to Brussels on June 14. Given the pandemic situation in the world, Washington will try to fit the summit with Russia into this European trip of the head of the White House, in order to cover as many cases on the continent as possible in one trip.

Word for you

In 2018, when a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump was being prepared in the Finnish capital, much was said about the “spirit of Helsinki”, which supposedly should set the leaders on the right track and guide bilateral relations on the path of normalization or at least stop their further degradation. Although the meeting was generally held in a positive atmosphere, it did not bring any concrete results, and both sides of the ocean continued to talk about the” achieved day ” in cooperation between Moscow and Washington.

According to Valery Garbuzov, the main problem of that summit was the lack of a well-developed agenda. The leaders were preparing for negotiations, but not for agreements. Therefore, the conditional reconciliation of the clock was not only not followed by an improvement in relations — on the contrary, the positions of the two nuclear powers continued to diverge even more. A significant role in this, of course, was played by the powerful opposition to any initiatives of Donald Trump on the part of the Washington political elite. Nevertheless, without taking into account the mistakes of Helsinki-2018, the upcoming summit of Vladimir Putin with Joe Biden also risks becoming a meeting without a result with positive dynamics.

— Do not expect from this kind of negotiations that something will be decided at them. For Biden at the beginning of his presidency, this is a kind of introductory meeting. Another thing is that the current administration quickly decided to hold a summit with the Russian president. The same Trump pulled two years after coming to the White House. Breakthroughs are not worth waiting for, because they happen when you are preparing for them. However, if the meeting takes place, it will be necessary to proceed from how it will take place and how it will end — – said the head of the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

A carefully drawn-up agenda can further contribute to the normalization of relations between Moscow and Washington, at least in certain areas. Most likely, the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States will focus on cybersecurity, arms control and diplomatic conflict. The expert noted that the latter issue should be solved in a complex and talk about the return of Russian property under arrest in Washington. In his opinion, it is in the interests of both countries to normalize the work of diplomatic missions, which is now, at least in the consular part, virtually paralyzed. In addition, one of the key topics should be Ukraine, summed up Valery Garbuzov.

According to Eduard Lozansky, the fact that Washington continues to talk about the Minsk agreements as the basis for resolving the situation in the Donbas can be considered a positive point. In this regard, at the upcoming summit, Joe Biden could promise Vladimir Putin to put pressure on Kiev and convince the Ukrainian authorities to still follow the points of “Minsk-2” to end the war. In any case, the United States can do it. Another thing is that in response, the Americans could demand some compromises from Russia, but it is still difficult to guess what exactly.

As for the diplomatic conflict, this is exactly the topic where countries could safely “rewind” everything, especially since Russia has already proposed to the new US administration to “reset” the diplomatic conflict and return the work of embassies and consulates to their previous pre-crisis state, Eduard Lozansky recalled. According to the expert, Joe Biden can go to the normalization of diplomatic relations, without fear of political problems in Washington, because they do not threaten him, unlike Donald Trump. “No one will definitely call him an agent of the Kremlin,” the political scientist stressed. Meanwhile, this is a matter of particular importance for the future of Russian-American relations, since the humanitarian ties between the peoples of the Russian Federation and the United States are also suffering due to the diplomatic conflict. So, problems with obtaining an American visa for Russians will affect, among other things, cultural and sporting events, not to mention simple interpersonal contacts. Therefore, there is no doubt that this issue will be raised at the meeting, the expert believes.

However, the fact that the Joe Biden administration, declaring its intentions to normalize relations with Russia, began with the next sanctions and insults, does not add to the positive, Eduard Lozansky recalled. In his opinion, in order to create at least some positive mood, Moscow and Washington should make symbolic gestures. As the political scientist noted, before the summit, the parties, for example, could plant a tree in the two capitals, if not “friendship”, then at least “good intentions”. This would help to defuse the situation and tune in to a positive mood, the expert is sure.