Not a Game of Thrones – A War of Civilizations

The Founding Fathers, who dreamed of a “shining city on a hill,” a citadel of liberty, equality, and fraternity, could hardly have imagined what America’s social atmosphere would become, discrediting Democracy and plunging the country into chaos and mutual hatred.

How civilizations perish

In the 250 years since the publication of Edward Gibbon’s famous book The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, hundreds of volumes on similar subjects have been published, most of them during the rapidly escalating crisis of Western civilization that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The American-led unipolar world failed to meet global challenges and failed to provide stability and cooperation. “Democracy promotion”, political influence and military actions of America and its allies could not contain the spread of interstate and civil wars, terrorism, genocide, prevent a new Cold War, and showed that America can no longer play the role of a world judge and policeman.

The following statement can be found in the press today: “To follow Washington’s instructions in war is to take the advice of the angel of death.” (Lee Smith, Tablet.)

American military spending is 40% of global military spending, but Western strategists have had to see that a semi-wild army that does not recognize the value of human life can force a mighty army to retreat. Artisanal missiles and drones can stand up to aircraft carriers and strategic bombers. Those who fight by rules and regulations lose to those ignorant of moral constraints. International institutions created and financed by the West are increasingly in the hands of destructive forces. The current picture of the world has emerged, in the American saying, “The tail is wagging the dog.”

The political and moral impotence of the civilized world is evidenced by the anti-Israel bacchanalia and global anti-Semitism, before which Western Europe has capitulated, and America is close to doing the same. The terrorist attack of 9/11 rallied the civilized world, and war thousands of miles from American borders was not in doubt. Today, although Hezbollah is stronger than Al Qaeda and ISIS combined, and Iran openly supplies the terrorists with weapons, hostages are in their hands, terror continues and the West demands a cessation of hostilities.

All this has been made possible by the crisis of the Western Community. The political chaos in the European Union is primarily due to the mass migration of people of a different culture and the backlash of nationalist forces. In America, opponents see each other as enemies of Democracy, threaten civil war, and propaganda sow hatred and aggression; education, culture, and legislation have become tools of party struggle without norms and rules. However, even within each of the opposing sides, unity is ensured by hatred of the opponent. The notions of justice, truth, and logic are defined by ideology and passions; demagogy and irrational bias rule over minds and conscience.

Today, the descendants of the Pilgrims, as well as the new immigrants, every racial and ethnic group, face an existential question: which country they want and can live in and which one has no place for them.

If authorities and parties are unable to find solutions, a country with the world’s best universities and research centers, with a constellation of Nobel laureates, should have people who can objectively assess the situation and recommend rational action. But Democracy abolishes authority, and a free citizen chooses whom he wants or does not want to listen to or read, guided primarily by whether the idea and position are adequate to his beliefs. Teachers and mentors, facts and quotations, are different for everyone. In these circumstances, if one chooses from experts, at least not overt servants of parties and groups.

Jeffrey Sachs belongs to this very small category. He has serious academic regalia and vast experience in government and international organizations. His competence in politics and economics is unquestionable, and in his position, he can afford an independent and candid view of the state of the country and the world.

“This is a time of disorder, of division, of unhappiness. Most Americans believe the country is going in the wrong direction, and they’re right. The super-rich seek to become more wealthy at any cost. The needs of the poor, modernizing infrastructure, and protecting the environment are ignored. America is getting richer and, at the same time, more miserable with climate destruction, shrinking life expectancy, rising national debt, and social polarization. International politics is no better;  America is rapidly losing global influence… and is creating enemies for itself in almost every part of the world.” (J. Sachs, The New American Politics.)

Sachs is an opponent of both Trump and Biden. “I think it’s one party of deep government – the party of Cheney, Harris, Biden, Victoria Nuland,” he said in a recent interview. (Nuland, for Sachs, is an agent of the underworld, the embodiment of pernicious forces.)

Sachs was closely associated with reorganizing the socialist system, but he is not suspected of serving Russia. The looting reforms of Gaidar and Chubais were carried out under his leadership. Although he attributes their failure to the fact that the State Department did not listen to his recommendations and blames American policy for the crisis in relations between Russia and Ukraine, Russia and the West, there is no sympathy for him in Russia. There is no sympathy for him in the American establishment either. Therefore, one can disagree, but it is more useful and interesting to read and listen to him than to propagandists and experts on salaries and grants.

“What time is at hand, such is the messiah.” A. Voznesensky.

There is always a temptation to explain everything by the influence of some hidden, behind-the-scenes political forces, the interests of the struggle for power and money. The popular TV series Game of Thrones, based on the best-selling novel by George Martin, came to this time and place. It shows the disgusting nature of politics and the moral lowliness of the participants in the struggle for power when lies, corruption, and treachery become tools without which the achievement of goals is impossible.

Such an understanding of power was evident in the times of satraps and tyrants, but Democracy gave rise to the hope that the will and interests of the majority would change the situation. Many people nurture these hopes to this day: if we could find and elect worthy, honest candidates, everything would be different. However, although our time is radically different from the times of Nero and Henry VIII, money, manipulation, and demagoguery remain powerful influences.

There are more skeptics and critics of Democracy today than in its best years, but few people prefer it to one-man rule. Churchill said Democracy has many flaws, but other systems are even worse. But he also owns another famous phrase: “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with an ordinary voter.” George Bernard Shaw’s aphorism: “Democracy is a tool to ensure that we are not governed better than we deserve.”

The contradictions and weaknesses of Democracy allowed the Nazis to come to power through democratic elections. Hitler was brought to power by the situation of the country and the support of the majority of the people. In another time, in another country, he would have remained an inconspicuous misanthropic artist.

It is comforting to blame leaders and parties, but the threats to Democracy, freedom, human rights, and the whole conditions of civilized existence come not only and not so much from above, but from below. Democracy has deterrence mechanisms against government and leaders, but it is powerless against mob pressure, and impunity encourages extremism and unlawful behavior. Typically, participants in violent, hate-filled actions come from marginalized groups. But angry mobs shape the public atmosphere more than reasonable people. The tyranny of the minority has replaced the tyranny of the majority; both in foreign policy and domestically, the tail is wagging the dog.

Thirty years ago, Samuel Huntington, America’s foremost historian, predicted that after the Cold War, the main cause of wars would be the clash of civilizations. Although the West did not achieve its goals in the war on terror and retreated, its opponents realized that they could not win by direct violence. Another way proved to be more effective – to transfer the war of civilizations inside the Western world.

The demographic revolution – the migration of millions of people from another culture to Western countries and the establishment of their own norms and values in a foreign land became the main tool in the struggle of ideologies and cultures. Although immigrants from other parts of the world are still a minority, their ways of being and demands increasingly define life in Europe and America. The high proportion and political activism of students and large subsidies from Arab countries largely determines the environment in elite universities.

Liberal ideas of multiculturalism, inclusion, and diversification are based on the belief that close interaction between cultures leads to mutual enrichment, that close communication erases differences, and that the best, progressive things become common property. However, a higher, tolerant culture has little chance to resist the passionate, aggressive pressure of alien norms and perceptions.

Although decades late, Europeans have realized the essence and prospects of what is happening, but the process is irreversible; the point of no return has been passed. In the United States, the Democratic Party sees demographic change as a way to strengthen its base; on the eve of the election, Biden granted citizenship to millions of immigrants, the vast majority of whom will vote for the Democrats.

In the current world, whites represent an estimated 7% of the population at most. In the mid-19th century, whites made up half the world’s population. With a low birth rate, two to three times lower than that of people of color, the fate of whites is historically predetermined. They will likely face the trials of a small biblical nation whose history and destiny were meant to be a lesson, but the lesson has not worked. It is unlikely that the new minority will be able to count on inclusion, affirmative action, and gratitude for past favors.

The experience of the Republic of South Africa, where, after the dismantling of apartheid and the establishment of Democracy, whites became a discriminated race, the economy in deep crisis, crime and corruption out of control, and gratuitous expropriation is legalized, provides a glimpse of the changes to come.

In many parts of the world, in cities where whites are becoming a minority, there is a mass exodus of whites to the suburbs and other cities. This demographic trend has been academically labeled “white flight.” Wikipedia lists a long list of American cities where this process is particularly pronounced, many of which have lost more than half of their white population.

The question is not whose culture, civilization is superior or inferior, better or worse. The question is whether civilizations, undivided by borders, can coexist peacefully, cooperating without suppressing each other. In the past, the issue was solved by “melting pot”, assimilation, acclimation to the norms and customs of the new country. Today, the cult of identification, ethnic and racial accommodation of cultures, values and ways of being.

Western civilization still has potential resources for self-preservation, but it is time to recall President John Adams’s alarming forecast: Democracy never lasts long. It soon squanders its strength, runs out of steam, kills itself. Protecting one’s way of being and values from external threats is not enough; today, internal threats are the most dangerous.

War on all fronts

Demographic problems and contradictions manifest themselves not only in racial and ethnic relations. Conflicts between generations, fathers, and children related to different conditions of personality formation, dynamics of social relations, cultural environment, and education have existed at all times.

In traditional societies, fundamental, conservative values, family structure, and ways of being were cultivated, preserved, and were the norm. Acceleration of economic development, liberalization of social relations, and improvement of living conditions created an opportunity for a freer choice of lifestyle, outlook, and behavior. All this was first of all manifested in economically developed democratic countries. Different generations have very different attitudes to politics, family, marriage, childbirth and upbringing, sexual behavior, culture, moral norms, work, and responsibility.

The current living generations are conventionally divided into traditionalists—born before 1942—baby boomers—born before 1964—millennials—born before 2000—zoomers—born before 2012—and the Alpha generation.

The younger generation, raised by liberalism and social media, has little trust and respect for the beliefs and morals of their elders. Differences in worldviews between generations often lead to a crisis in family relationships. This manifests itself not only in political perceptions and cultural preferences but also in personal life. Half of first marriages and 70% of second marriages end in divorce. A quarter of children live with single mothers, and among blacks half. Premarital, extramarital, and same-sex relationships are no longer a social stigma.

Dissatisfaction with socioeconomic conditions is much higher among younger generations. Half of young people of working age believe they will live worse than their parents, and more than a third of them depend on their parents’ financial assistance. Rapid financial dispersal exacerbates dissatisfaction, creating a mass perception of social injustice and inequality.

Younger generations are most dissatisfied with working conditions and the possibility of improving their situation. Half a century ago, it was possible to choose a profession and keep it for the rest of one’s working life. In the present conditions, no sphere of education and activity guarantees stability. It is not the economy for man, but man for the economy with rapidly changing requirements. Hourly, temporary, casual work, lack of trade unions and legal protection have become the norm of life for millions of people. The time is at hand when artificial intelligence and robotization will make it unnecessary for people even to be exploited, not only in physical labor but also in mental labor. Training for a promising, well-paid profession is ruinous and out of reach for most.

Whereas in older generations, African Americans felt the most discriminated against, now young white males feel the most discriminated, though the topic of the day is white male privilege. Personnel policies, affirmative action, inclusion, and diversification have drastically reduced opportunities for social advancement primarily for white males.

At all times, younger generations are more radicalized. The mass movements of “We are the 99%,” “Black Lives Matter,” for abortion rights, political protests, and rallies in support of party candidates are all large manifestations of youth sentiment. In 2016, more young people voted for Bernie Sanders than Trump and Clinton combined.

Since the struggle for women’s emancipation, the concept of a “war of the sexes” has become commonplace. Liberalism has tried its best to downplay notions of the differences between the sexes, but at the same time, supports feminism and creates an atmosphere in which relationship tensions are heightened. While relevant, the “Me Too” movement has attracted attention primarily through scandalous trials against the rich and famous, raising many doubts about the motives and credibility of the accusations. Complimenting a woman can get you fired from your job. But half of women and a third of men have been sexually assaulted. The novelty of the situation is that today, men face domestic violence just as much as women but very rarely seek legal redress.

Regarding political preferences, women are moving to the left and men to the right. Among men, 52% are for Trump, and among women, 58% are for Harris. In the 18-29-year-old category, the difference in choice between men and women is more than 50%.

Young men are more religious and more conservative for the first time. There are significantly more women than men in colleges and universities. Men’s wages are not rising, and women’s are rising. For perhaps the first time in history, young men want marriage and children more than women. Life expectancy is longer for women than men, and deaths from suicide, alcohol, and drugs are much higher for men than women. Social media reflects the acute dissatisfaction of men with women and women with men and contributes significantly to the devaluation and aggravation of relationships. Finding partners on the internet and “speed dating” is a powerful means of lowering self-esteem and self-worth.

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The fate of a country is determined not by stock exchange index, not by the military budget, but, first of all, by the state of social relations. The speeches, promises, and images of candidates for power cannot overcome disintegration into polarized social groups. Society is engulfed in a cold war, which has more chances of turning into a hot war than being prevented by common sense and goodwill.