Putin’s Valdai speech world view

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave another important speech on his world view at the Valdai meeting this weekend, an annual event that is a sort of ideas talking shop but always worth listening to.

He didn’t say anything extremely new – just laid out his multipolar world view again: we are all the same; countries should be nice to each other and let them develop as they see fit; and the emerging markets have already in effect emerged and are due the respect to run their own shops.

But there was a harder edge to this version as it was framed in the context of conflict: the non-aligned countries of the Global South are clubbing together and reject the proclivity of the Global North to dictate policy, values, choose laws, condemn elections, and take the right to sanction anyone it disagrees with or doesn’t like.

It was a poignant speech because as a result of the war in Ukraine Putin has succeeded in going a long way to creating this multipolar world – or at least smashing the unipolar set up.

Most of the Global South has not signed up to the sanctions on Russia and they are now flocking to the smorgasbord of non-Western organisations like the BRICS+, G20, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Mercosur, African Union, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), and so on. And all of these bodies are also increasingly working together under the leadership of Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Chinese President Xi Jinping. That is not in the West’s interests.

Of course, this amalgamation of up-and-coming countries is very young and hasn’t even worked out what it really wants to do – cooperate with the G7 (Modi’s preference) or stand in opposition to it (Xi & Putin) – but the sanctions have catalysed work on these problems as everyone, to difference degrees, agrees with Putin that a multipolar world is better and everyone is fed up with US bullying. Some, like Iran and Venezuela, are totally on board. Some, like Central Asia and Turkey, are studiously fence-sitting.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov eloquently described it as the “rule of the golden billion”. And the G7 collectively doesn’t even have a billion people; it’s closer to just under 790,000mn.

But that is the point: just a bit less of a tenth of the world’s population has taken on itself the right to “lead” the rest of the world’s 7bn people. Putin’s point is this is a two-speed world where the G7 are in charge and the rest – 90% of the world’s population — have little say in how things should be run. This is causing increasing resentment. I have been talking to Indians a lot recently and they are getting increasingly angry. “You us to help you with Russia and Ukraine? Where is your help with our problems with China and Pakistan? It’s a European problem, and the European colonialists should solve it.”

Putin’s stance ignores the point that Western liberal democracy is “better” than the typically authoritarian rule, or imperfect democratic systems, in many of these countries, which is almost certainly true. But the Global South countries find that view arrogant. The Western system may work better, but these countries have their own systems and don’t see why someone in Washington or Brussels has any say about how it should work. The point of democracy is the people of that country should chose the system and the leaders. They want the West to stop telling them what to do.

The fact that the Global South is growing so fast only adds to this feeling of frustration. As bne IntelliNews has reported, three of the top five richest countries in the world are now BRICS, with China, not the US, as number one in adjusted GDP terms. So, if wealth-makes-right or raw population size (ie more voters in the global community) then it should be the BRICS calling the shots; not the G7. But of course, with the US led-hegemony it is military might that makes right and the Global South doesn’t like that aspect either.

Putin argues the unipolar world, led by the US, is a colonialist set up and actually he has a point. Or at least it looks that way to many countries, especially in Africa. As a result, he plays on the colonialist theme constantly in his recent speeches and it plays very well to a lot of the Global South.

I took a look at this speech but also went over his most significant speeches (or expressions of his world view) from the last 23 years:

Valdai (2024)

New Russian foreign policy concept  (2023)

New rules of the game” speech (2021)

Ukraine history essay (2021)

Munich Security Conference speech (2007)

Soviet Union Collapse tragedy (2005)

Gorby’s mistake (circa 2002)

A much-loved meme is that you can never listen to Putin as he always lies. But as a long-time Russian observer, I would argue that the exact opposite is true. He tends to say out loud and in black and white what he is thinking and usually telegraphs it well in advance; years in advance. If you go through all these key comments, then they are remarkably consistent in their themes and topics.

If you have never watched it, I highly recommend you watch the MSC speech as this was the point that he threw down the gauntlet and said enough of this Nato expansion is enough, warning that Russia would “push back” if it continued. It did continue. Russia did push back.

But in stages. Each time warned of what he was going to do (not explicitly in detail of course) well in advance. Another key speech was the New Rules of the Game speech (that was actually delivered by Lavrov) in 2021 where the threat of the push back was explicit.

We seem to be entering the end game in Ukraine now. I was listening to reports this morning on the steady pace of the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) advances, albeit at huge cost, and the rising number of desertions from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). It’s clear that Trump is not into this war. The question now remains on what support, if any, he will continue to provide and what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is going to do – give up or be forced into a deal.

But what seems likely is we will have to deal with a rogue Russia, occupying 20% of Ukraine’s land, in cahoots with China and a slew of unsavoury nations that sit on most of the world’s raw materials that will be actively working to undermine the “colonialist” unipolar world order. This is not a pretty picture.

Especially as it comes in the midst of a polycrisis  that was already well underway before the invasion of Ukraine and a climate that is clearly in collapse.

The news of dithering coming out of Baku is equally grim: they held an all-night session on the first day just to try and decide what should be on the agenda. There should be no argument about what should be on the agenda. Stop. Burning. Fossil fuels.

What is materialising in its place is we need to increase renewables investment funds for the Global South from $100bn to $1 trillion. As I said yesterday, this is at best a side issue and a distraction.