As support for the anti-Russian proxy war fades, the war party blames everyone but itself.

There is a growing body of compelling evidence showing that Russia and Ukraine were involved in serious negotiations to end the war in Ukraine right after it started on 24 February 2022 (see below). These talks were facilitated by Turkish President Recep Erdogan and former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and featured detailed and candid discussions on the terms of a possible settlement.

Kudos to Andrei Martyanov for highlighting an article I missed — Bad history makes for bad policy on Ukraine — by Robert English. Andrei correctly takes English to task for butchering the statistics regarding the Battle of Kursk. I want to take a deeper dive into Mr. English’s article because he embraces a number of false assumptions about Russia but still manages to come to the correct conclusion about the failure of U.S. and NATO planners to understand the cause of the Ukrainian debacle, which is:

There may not be much the West either can or will do to help Ukraine

With news breaking that the Ukrainians are moving towards a final, total mobilization against Russia – and me regretting I didn’t post about it yesterday when I had a hunch on the matter – something occurred to me. I’ve underestimated the Russians before. What if I still am?

As a brokered peace looks more inevitable, the question is why it took so long.

Rumours of tensions at the top, exhaustion after two years of fighting and frustration with allies dampen the mood in Kyiv

As Ukraine’s counteroffensive begins to unravel, it is not clear that the hundreds of thousands of deaths already suffered have purchased any of its goals.

The Kremlin has cause for quiet celebration: Kyiv’s counteroffensive failed to break through and the West has turned its attention to Gaza

Nearly 20,000 men have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the war to avoid being drafted, the BBC has discovered.