The contested scramble for peace in Ukraine

The great paradox of the conflict in Ukraine is that while a defeat is shaping up for Kyiv, the war itself is reaching an apparent stasis—so much so that a conclusive end to it can only be in a manner and with a timeline that Moscow decides.

The Trump administration is steadily decoupling, but the remnants of the ‘collective West’ in Europe is still bent upon continuing to inflict as much serious damage to the Russian forces on the battlefield as possible, apprehensive of a perceived Russian resurgence on the geopolitical plane regionally and internationally in the downstream.

From the Russian perspective, Donald Trump’s presidency remains an enigma, susceptible to mood swings. But Trump’s abhorrence of war and his enthusiasm to restore the political and diplomatic intercourse with Moscow is beyond doubt. He has ruled out Ukraine’s NATO membership. And Moscow is reciprocating Trump’s keenness to add a new template to his America First agenda in the nature of a hugely beneficial US-Russian economic relationship.

Some deft diplomacy is in play, as Moscow also must keep an eye on its strategic partnership with Beijing. We are indeed witnessing a remarkably dynamic period not only for Ukraine, but for European security more generally and fundamental elements of the international security architecture.

The most intractable issue—the root cause of the war—is that Ukraine is embedded in the larger question of European security. Therefore, Moscow is up-fronting a dialogue with the US across a range of issues—West Asia, energy security, the Arctic, strategic stability and so forth, to create a critical mass of mutual trust. To that end, an expeditious restoration of normal diplomatic relationship with the US becomes a pre-requisite.

At the level of none other than President Vladimir Putin himself, assurances have been held out to Washington. Putin said on Monday, “Russia is one of the uncontested leaders when it comes to rare and rare-earth metal reserves. We have deposits in the north in Murmansk, and in the Caucasus in Kabardino-Balkaria, as well as in the Far East in the Irkutsk region, in Yakutia and Tuva. Developing these resources requires substantial capital investment. We would be happy to cooperate with any foreign partners, including American companies.

“Our historical territories that have become part of the Russian Federation (Donbas and Novorossiya) also hold certain reserves. We are ready to work there with international partners, including Americans.” Putin disclosed that already, “some of our respective companies are in contact (with American counterparts) and are discussing such projects”.

On the whole, the Kremlin feels encouraged that “[Trump’s] actions are not driven by emotions, but rather by cold calculation and a rational assessment of the situation”. Putin is full of praise for Trump’s “freedom of action. He is not bound by past commitments that would prevent him from moving forward and working towards a resolution of this conflict. His direct and unrestrained approach reflects his character. He is in a unique position: not only does he say what he thinks, but he says whatever he wants. And that, after all, is the privilege of a leader of a major global power”.

However, the Gordian knot is yet to be cut—replacement of the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv by an elected leadership committed to friendly relations with Moscow. This is where Trump’s forthcoming meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy becomes crucial. Zelenskyy is a stakeholder in an extended war. Peace means lifting of martial law in Ukraine and holding overdue elections under international supervision, where his chance of re-election is zero.

Then there are other sticking points of territory and Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation. From the Russian standpoint, a ceasefire along the line of contact at this point is not satisfactory, as that will leave with the Ukrainian government parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. Where that line is drawn is going to be important to Russia. The toughest of all issues is what happens to that part of Ukraine not occupied by Russia whenever a settlement is reached. Russia seeks a neutral Ukraine whose geopolitical orientation remains benign and predictable.

Obviously, there is much rancour among Europeans—not only in Paris, Berlin or Brussels—that they were led up the garden path by the US right into the abyss of a proxy war three years ago. They are now left to fend for themselves, grappling with a successor in the White House who can barely hide his contempt towards them as “freeloaders” who made a “sucker” out of Washington.

The exasperation in the European mind is on display as the war is also affecting domestic politics — although, their own weak “liberal-globalist” leaderships have a lot of explaining to do about their irrational fixation with inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia, a long-lost European dream since Napoleon, and punching above their league. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s shocking remark underscores it: “I understand that many people think a peaceful solution or a ceasefire sounds like a good idea, but we run the risk that peace in Ukraine [could be] actually more dangerous than the war that is going on now.”

Moscow expects Trump to nip in the bud the incipient thoughts in transatlantic circles regarding a European troop deployment in Ukraine. The UK leads the light brigade. But Trump’s green signal is needed. The outcome of Keir Starmer’s talks with Trump on Thursday would be crucial. Any continued Western military presence on Ukraine’s soil remains an absolute red line for Moscow. Starmer is holding a European summit in London on the weekend. The press release from 10 Downing Street merely said Starmer will “reiterate shared US-UK commitment to reaching a durable and lasting peace in Ukraine, and the need for Europe to step up to the challenge”.

Meanwhile, Europeans are also angling for a seat at the peace table. But then, Chinese President Xi Jinping informed Putin during a telephone conversation on Monday that the Friends of Peace group of BRICS countries plans to meet again in New York soon to discuss its participation in the peace talks. Unsurprisingly, Putin is open to the tantalising idea of BRICS choreographing Europe’s destiny.