Three scenarios for peace in Ukraine this autumn

Translated by Geoffrey Roberts

Then Zelensky confirmed that he would like to see the Russian Federation at the second peace summit, and today he asked Western countries to “make it so” that the war ends this autumn.

However, similar statements have been made before, but they have not led to any results.

But, looking at the situation globally, what are the options to end the war in Ukraine?

There are three scenarios.

The first is the complete defeat of one of the parties, which will be forced to accept the conditions dictated by the winner. This option cannot be 100% ruled out (for example, in the event of destabilisation in society and the collapse of the army in one of the warring countries), but for now it seems unlikely.

The second is a global agreement between Ukraine, the West and Russia which would resolve the entire spectrum of contradictions between the parties and lead to the conclusion of a full-fledged peace treaty between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, and, possibly, a new security treaty in Europe. This option is also, to put it mildly, not very likely in the foreseeable future – unless there are cardinal political changes in Ukraine, Russia or the West.

The third option – and this is the only real option for ending the war in the near future – is to stop hostilities along the front line. This scenario has its supporters and opponents in Ukraine, Russia and the West. We have cited their arguments many times, but note once again that this is the only option at the moment to stop the war quickly.

What is needed for this scenario to be realised in practice?

Four forces are directly or indirectly involved in the war: Ukraine, Russia, the global West (supports Ukraine), and the global South (helps Russia bypass sanctions).

Of these four forces, the global South is definitely for a speedy end to the war. Ukraine and the West are against: they officially adhere to the “Zelensky peace formula”, which provides for the withdrawal of Russian troops to the 1991 borders.

In June, Putin, having announced his “peace proposals”, also, in fact, spoke out against this option, since he demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four oblasts as a condition for a ceasefire.

True, there are various rumours that the real positions of the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the West are not so categorical. But so far there is no confirmation of these rumours.

In order for an end to the war along the front line to happen, a change in the positions of its participants is necessary.

And here there are two scenarios.

The first is if the West agrees to this option. In this case, it can join forces with the global South to put pressure on both warring parties to stop the war along the front line. And even if both Kyiv and Moscow are against it, they would not be able to finesse the unified position of the rest of the world and would join the negotiation process, trying to get the best conditions for themselves.

The second is a necessity for both Ukraine and Russia to stop the war along the front line. The Russian Federation will not have any particular difficulties here – its friendly countries will support this option. Regarding the position of the West, there is a question – will it support Kyiv’s inclination to stop the war or dissuade it, as at the time of the Istanbul agreements? However, there is now a high probability it would support. Unlike spring 2022, confidence in the possibility of inflicting a complete military defeat on Russia is no longer so strong and there is more and more fear of the war in Ukraine escalating into World War III.

However, these are all theoretical calculations.

There is as yet little indication that at least one of the warring parties is ready to change its position regarding the cessation of hostilities along the front line (especially after the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive in the Kursk region). But, let us repeat, of all the options for ending the war as soon as possible, this is the only realistic one.