Ukraine Update with Alexander Mercouris

Kherson

There has been a day of very confusing reports. No sign of any great Ukrainian victories. Early in the day the regional administration building in Kherson City was pictured without a flag flying; there were reports of a Russian withdrawal, of Russian troops being redeployed from the western to the eastern bank of the Dnieper.

But as the day progressed there were alternative reports to the effect that although the Russian flag was no longer flying over the administration building possibly, it was rumored, to lure the Ukrainians into a premature attack, Russian flags were flying from all other buildings; there were reports of a reduction of Ukrainian forces on the front lines; that Ukrainian attacks were of lesser strength than heretofore, and that, so far, Russian frontlines across the entire region were holding; that a Ukrainian missile attack on Kherson shipyward had been repelled.

Despite all of the above, overall there appears to be no changes in the frontlines. The latest Russian MOD bulletin has talked of a repulsion of a 500-strong Ukrainian attempted attack.

Mercouris has no doubt that there is indeed a Russian pullback plan to be implemented if this appears to be warranted, and this has been stated clearly by General Surovikin himself. Consistent with such a contingency plan is the stop-go affair of a civilian evacuation (this was said to have ended yesterday, so not at all consistent with claims of a Russian withdrawal) and the systematic clearance of the city of historic Russian monuments, the most important of which was the removal of the tomb of Prince Potemkin, the Russian Commander who liberated this region from the Ottoman Turks in the 18th century on behalf of Catherine the Great. This may be to protect such monuments from damage caused by artillery or even street fighting, or by flooding in the event that the Karkova dam is breached, or, most plausibly, to protect them in the event that Ukraine might retake the city.

All such speculation to one side, there are many reports over the past few days that the Russians, far from evacuating, are strengthening and even doubling their forces. This could be part of a clever deception but, given the existence in this modern age of sophisticated surveillance systems, it is extremely unlikely. Also, it seems that Ukrainian forces are thinning; that weather conditions are working against Ukraine; that all recent Ukrainian attacks have been repelled and the intensity of such attacks are weakening. Mercouris is doubtful about theories that Russia is attempting to lure Ukraine into a premature attack.

The main Russian vulnerability in Kherson City is that the City is within range of Ukrainian artillery, for which reason it has been announced that Russian military and civilian headquarters have been relocated to a small town on the coast of the Azov Sea, beyond the reach of Ukrainian artillery. It is most likely for this reason that the flag was removed from the previous regional administration building. But the Russian civilian and military authorities appear, once again, to have failed to keep their publics adeqauately informed at the risk of sowing seeds of demoralization.

Elsewhere

Elsewhere, both Ukrainian and Russian forces are being slowed down by rainy, muddy, and cold conditions. Incremental Russian advances have been reported in the areas of Uglada (source of Ukrainian shelling on Donetsk City), Pahlovka,Novamikilovka (all name spellings strictly provisional!!) and Bakhmut. There has been a redeployment by the Ukrainians from the Oskil river (near Lyman) to the Bakhmut area. From Donestsk, Patrick Lawrence has referred to the extreme stress caused by Ukrainian shelling on the people of Donetsk City from Uglada. The Donetsk militia have been reported to have broken through the fortified village of Marinka. Fighting continues in Bakhmut City. Along with the Russian advances in the suburbs there has been a lot of fighting in the residential areas and a pushing back of Ukrainian forces to the north west section. Any time the Russians advance, Ukraine pushes back with counter-attacks and tries to recapture the lost territory. Most such counter-attacks are repelled. But this situation makes the battle comparable to Stalingrad in World War II even if the numbers involved are far smaller. Stalingrad was a battle fought in very much the same way until eventually German troops were encircled. Zelinsky appears to be of the view that Bakhmut must be held at all costs, which would confirm that Bakhmut is a lynchpin of Ukrainian defense. The Telegraph is claiming that Russia is coming off worst in this situation although Mercouris argues that it is the Ukrainians. It is all taking far longer than anyone anticipated in this test of strength and endurance but all the indications are that the eventual collapse will be a Ukrainian collapse, perhaps later on in the Autumn or early Winter, at which point there will be a gradual collapse of other Ukrainian defensea. The battle of Bakhmut overshadows all others. General Surovikin, with ever increasing forces, has talked of a strategy of grinding down the Ukrainians. This has indeed been the Russian pattern.

Kharkiv

Since the battle of Lyman when the Ukrainians were able to capture the city, there has been no further successful Ukrainian advance. Brian Berletic at New Atlas talks of the Russian tactic being to conserve forces and equipment, an assessment which General Surovikin has confirmed. Berletic has also argued that the flow of Western weapons, for some time now, has been dwindling. Zelinksy complained (in June) to Biden that the West was not providing enough. Since then, things have got only worse. News of the row between Zelinksiy and Biden has only just been published. With each iteration the total number of weapons supplied has decreased. The M777 Howitzers and HIMARs launchers (38 in total) have not been the decisive factors that was once claimed.

The Grain Deal

According to western media , Erdogan called Russia’s bluff by offering to escort Ukrainian ships out of Ukrainian ports and forced Russia back into the grain deal. In practice the ships actually stopped; they could not leave the ports because the insurers in London would not provide insurance for ships steaming towards a battleground.

Therefore it cannot be the case that Erdogan called Putin’s bluff.

Any written assurances from Ukraine are probably not worth the paper they are written on but, in accepting Russian insistence that it refrain from further violations of the terms of the agreement, Ukraine appears to have conceded responsibility for using the protected maritime sealanes for the purpose of launching attacks on the Russian Black Sea fleet. The agreement which Russia has rejoined will soon expire and will then need to be renegotiated, if at all. Erdogan has promised that most of the food in question will go to the Global South, not to Europe (as has been the case in practice until now).

In the meantime, Turkey is making it possible for Turkish hotels to use the Russian MIR card, and is making progress to becoming the new gas hub for routing Russian oil and gas to Europe. Also, Erdogan and Putin are talking about their respective forces in Syria. In other words, the interests of these two parties are incrediblty complex and intertwined. No one part of this complex tangle can be understood without consideration of the whole.

Finance

The Fed’s latest increase in base interest rates is a further indication that not all is well with the US economy, and this will have dire consequences, while in Germany there are further reports of German factories closing down and German business relocations to the USA and, more significantly, to China, even while Chancellor Sholz is visiting Beijing, facing down his opponents in the Green Party, doubtless seeking some kind of deal well short of the otherwise much vaunted decoupling of East and West economies.