Ukraine war deal will ultimately come down to trust

Donald Trump may have begun discussions with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, over a possible end to the war in Ukraine, but there currently appears to be something of a stalemate.

Russia’s stated objectives of holding on to five regions of Ukraine (including Crimea), as well as ensuring Ukraine’s permanent neutrality, is unlikely to be acceptable to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky. Meanwhile, Zelensky and Trump had a very public falling out, with the US president calling Zelensky a “dictator.”

This seems to have been resolved somewhat now that the pair appear to have agreed a deal for the US to jointly develop Ukraine’s mineral resources. But serious further negotiation to actually end the war will depend on whether the key players can trust each other as well as whether Zelensky perceives anything Putin and Trump have to say as believable.

Broadly speaking, trust and its development between leaders offers a potential route to overcoming international conflict and bringing about diplomatic agreement. Indeed, a minimum level of trust is needed to enable states to work together.

An example of this was how the relationship between Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and US President Ronald Reagan developed.

Arguably, it was regular face-to-face interactions between Gorbachev and Reagan (four summits in just over three years), which allowed them to develop a level of understanding and increase trust, allowing them to reduce nuclear weapon stockpiles. Nevertheless, it still took time to develop their trust and this remained fragile.

How is trust won?

Trust is an important element in effective negotiations and can shape their outcome and influence whether peace talks are successful. The importance of trust in a negotiation can be found throughout history.