Whenever the Russian forces conduct mass missiles strikes against Ukraine the Ukrainian air defense troops claim that the shot down a lot of them, often the majority.
After yesterday’s wave of strikes which hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure Ukrainian media repeated such claims:
Russia’s largest attack: Ukraine’s defence forces destroy over 200 out of 236 Russian missiles and drones – Ukrainska Pravda
Russia launched 236 aerial weapons on Ukraine on Monday, 26 August. Ukraine’s air defence downed 102 missiles and 99 attack drones.
Source: Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, Commander of Ukraine’s Air Force, on social media.
…
All available weapons and equipment were used to repel the air attack: aircraft, anti-aircraft missile troops of the Air Force, mobile fire groups of the Ukrainian defence forces, and electronic warfare units. A total of 201 air targets were shot down in the air combat: 102 missiles and 99 attack UAVs:
– 1 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile;
– 1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile;
– 1 Kh-22 cruise missile;
– 99 Kh-101, Kalibr cruise missiles, and Kh-59/69 guided missiles;
– 99 Shahed-131/136 attack UAVs.
This adds up to a claimed success rate of 80.3% against missiles and 90.8% against drones.
These numbers are fantasy.
At the same time the Ukrainian government walks around hat in hand to collect money for more air defense systems. If the historically high success rates were real there would be no need to ask for more systems.
That all does not sum up. (There are additional reasons to doubt these claims.)
Just a week ago the Ukrainian commander-in-chief General Syrski had published more realistic numbers.
Commander-in-Chief of Armed Forces reveals how many military facilities in Ukraine were hit by Russian missiles – Ukrainska Pravda
Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that since 24 February 2022, Russian missiles and drones have hit 11,879 facilities in Ukraine. Most of them are civilian facilities (6,203), and the rest are military (5,676).
Source: Syrskyi, during his report at the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities, Defence Express reports.
Details: The Commander-in-Chief also specified the number of missiles and drones the Russians used against Ukraine, and how many of them were shot down.
Syrskyi said that the Russians used 9,590 missiles and 13,997 drones to attack Ukraine, of which 2,429 missiles and 5,972 drones were shot down.
(The original Defence Express report is here.)
These more realistic, but likely still way too high numbers add up to a success rate of 25.3% against missiles and 42.6% against drones.
According to Syrski 15.186 Russia missiles and drone passed through the Ukrainian air defenses to then damage 11.879 facilities in Ukraine. But what about damage created by air defense missiles which often miss to then come down to hit this or that?
General Oleshchuk should be asked why his claimed success numbers differ from those his boss has presented. He should also be asked how much damage his troops create with the use of their air defense systems.
