As war drags on, Western capitals shifting view to ending war. Zelenskiy consulting with US before unveiling ‘victory plan’
Ukraine’s allies are detecting that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy may be getting ready to adopt a more flexible approach as they look at ways to help bring an end to Russia’s war, according to officials close to NATO.
The Ukrainian leader has publicly reinforced Kyiv’s main demands on ending the war, including a full withdrawal of Russian forces from territory it occupies and NATO membership for Ukraine. Zelenskiy this week again ruled out “bargaining” over Ukrainian sovereignty or territory.
But with war-battered Ukraine approaching its third full winter of the war and Western support showing signs of flagging with no end to the conflict in sight, Ukrainian officials have signaled that they’re prepared to recognize that an endgame should come into play, the officials said on condition they not be named as talks take place behind closed doors.
The shift in sentiment was to be tested at a meeting hosted by President Joe Biden with Zelenskiy and other Western allies in Germany Saturday. The US leader postponed the trip to focus on the response to Hurricane Milton, with the gathering at Ramstein Air Force Base put on hold.
The Ukrainian president is aiming to win allied support for his latest “victory plan” at the meeting, which entails “clear, specific steps for a just end to the war.” While that plan got a lukewarm reception when Zelenskiy briefed Biden and other allies in the US last month, the president dispatched top aides back to Washington this week to work on the details of the outline.
Endgame
US officials have asked Kyiv to formulate a roadmap of what it needs through next year, including military hardware, industrial development aid and financial support, according to an official familiar with the discussions. Zelenskiy said he’ll disclose the full details of the plan once consultations with allies are finished.
“We invite our partners to define how they envision the end of this war, Ukraine’s place in the global security architecture, and the joint steps that can steer this war toward a conclusion,” Zelenskiy said on Monday.
To be sure, no official touched on explicit concessions. Zelenskiy has been steadfast in rejecting any talk of giving up territory. The Ukrainian government last week denied that Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha discussed “territorial compromises” during meetings last month at the United Nations.
Still, pressure from allies has mounted for a more concrete plan that considers how the two-and-a-half-year war might end. A standoff on the battlefield, strained budgets in the West and above all the outcome of the US presidential election in November have aligned to induce allies to look more closely at a negotiated end to the conflict.
Because Kyiv has yet to reveal the full details of its plan, one official speculated that Ukrainian officials may be wielding an element of strategic ambiguity that would give them space for movement further ahead.
NATO Membership
A central element of any future talks will be Ukraine’s NATO membership, an issue that divides Ukraine’s allies. Biden is coming under pressure to extend an explicit invitation to Kyiv to join the alliance, officials said. And while it’s unlikely the US president will do so, such an offer is viewed as a potential bidding chip for any negotiations involving the Kremlin.
Anything short of full membership would put Ukraine on the back foot when it came to ceasefire talks, according to an official familiar with the discussions at NATO, adding that robust bilateral security guarantees, particularly with the US, would amount to defacto Ukrainian membership.
The official said that since Russia views NATO membership as a non-starter, it wasn’t clear what kind of formula would be able to get all parties around the negotiating table.
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris declined to say if she would support Ukraine’s push to join NATO if elected, but asserted that Kyiv must be part of any US negotiation with Vladimir Putin over ending the ongoing conflict.
Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, meanwhile has pledged to end the war soon if he returned to the White House, and not necessarily on Kyiv’s terms. European allies have viewed a second Trump presidency as throwing in jeopardy future American aid to Ukraine.
For Europe, fiscal constraints are also adding pressure. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government has earmarked less funding in next year’s budget, relying instead on a complex plan to raise loan financing from frozen Russian central bank assets. France is grappling with its own ballooning deficit.
Beyond the West, Kyiv has confronted a demand — particularly from the so-called Global South — to more actively pursue a peace process that includes Russia. Zelenskiy’s blueprint to isolate Moscow by securing the support of countries such as China, India and Brazil has stalled amid an insistence that the Kremlin be given a place at the table.
