Volodymyr Zelensky faces a power struggle in 2025

ALMOST EVERY day in Kyiv, there is a moment when the war makes a loud entrance in town. This is when the funeral processions appear, rolling down main arteries into Khreshchatyk, the capital’s central thoroughfare. Traffic grinds to a halt. A tannoy broadcasts the fallen soldiers’ stories over rousing, patriotic music. The columns then make their way to Independence Square, site of Ukraine’s many past revolutions. Comrades light flares and say their goodbyes. They plant Ukrainian flags into flower beds that have long become fields of fabric, yellow and blue. In recent days, as Russia’s offensive in the Donbas ramps up, the ceremonies have become more frequent.

The rest of the day, life in the city reverts to normal. Shops function, the restaurants serve food and the politicians gossip. The talk is now all about Donald Trump and the waiting game. Will his new administration tilt Ukraine’s way or Russia’s? Can he impose a ceasefire? Will elections follow? For now, there are two dates on Kyiv politicos’ lips: January 20th 2025, the date of Mr Trump’s inauguration, the first moment for any possible ceasefire and lifting of military law, and May 25th, the earliest mooted date for an election.

The presidential office denies it is preparing for a vote. Most sources remain sceptical that it will happen. It is not the first time the capital has been awash with rumour. There are issues of organisation and legitimacy: how can a splintered nation at war hold elections? The country also has yet to endure what many assume will be a difficult winter. “Engaging in electioneering right now would be suicidal,” says Yaroslav Zhelezhnyak, an opposition MP.

Still, some groundwork appears to have begun. Regional election headquarters are mobilising, and work on candidate lists is beginning. The representatives of one likely presidential rival to Volodymyr Zelensky say that Ukraine needs elections; but they worry about making a public statement to this effect, fearing a fierce backlash from the presidential office.

If elections were held tomorrow, Mr Zelensky would struggle to repeat the success of the landslide win he secured in 2019. Nearly three years into the Russian invasion, he is no longer seen as the undisputed war leader he once was. Internal polling seen by The Economist suggests he would fare badly in a run-off against Valery Zaluzhny, the other wartime hero. The former commander-in-chief was dispatched to be ambassador to Britain after falling out with the president last year. He has not made his political ambitions clear yet, though many are urging him to run.

The president fares better when pitched against other opposition figures, some of whom are actively disliked. But a former colleague of the president says his best move might be to step aside regardless, and keep to his original promise only to serve one term. “Zelensky has only one way out to get out with an intact reputation,” this source says. “That is to run elections [without him] and go down in history as the man who united the nation in war.” The alternative is to risk being associated with a military collapse or an incomplete peace.

The deteriorating situation on the front lines is already rippling through society. Dmytro Povorotny, a military chaplain, sees it in the new soldiers he speaks to. “There are a lot of unmotivated men. They are fighting because that’s the only way they stay alive.” The army is censoring the most negative news to avoid fanning flames back home, he says. A senior military official agrees. Even Mr Zelensky is being shielded from the truth. “It’s not even that he’s being kept in a warm bath,” the source says, using a local idiom to suggest the president was being cocooned by his top officials. “He’s being kept in a sauna.”

As Mr Trump’s presidency looms, Ukraine braces for change; that is the one thing they are sure will happen. On other points officials are less confident. They have taken some heart from the news that Mr Trump is set to appoint two relative hawks to important foreign-policy roles—Marco Rubio as secretary of state, and Mike Waltz, as national security adviser; but they were disturbed when he announced there would be no place for a former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, seen as more sympathetic. “A very negative development,” says one senior security official. The worry now is that Mr Trump’s offer to Ukraine will come to resemble something closer to ideas put forward by J.D. Vance, the incoming vice-president. These would essentially rule out NATO membership, while allowing Russia to keep the 18% of Ukraine’s territory that it currently occupies.

For all the talk in Kyiv and other capitals about an end to war, most of those who spend time on the front lines understand that a lot of fighting is still to be done. Vladimir Putin holds the initiative, and it looks unlikely that he would offer a ceasefire until several battles are resolved. In Kurakhove, Russian forces are outnumbering Ukrainian forces by at least six to one, and a Ukrainian retreat seems inevitable soon. Ukraine is on the back foot in the Kursk region it in turn occupies, where Russia is trying to push its soldiers out with the assistance of thousands of North Korean troops. Fighting is also beginning in Zaporizhia province for what Ukrainian intelligence believes will be an assault on the provincial capital, an important industrial hub. “You’ve got to work within reality,” says Father Povorotny. “You can’t tell war to stop and wait.”