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Ukraine Faces a Double Threat if Russia Takes Pokrovsk
The eastern city is a key military hub, but it’s also critical to Ukraine’s steel industry.
5 mins read
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has come under a barrage of criticism from soldiers, lawmakers and military analysts over the rapid advances made by the Russian army in eastern Ukraine since Kyiv launched its bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
Many Ukrainians celebrated their army’s invasion of Kursk on August 6, hoping the gamble would force Moscow to divert resources to the new front and swing the momentum of the war in Ukraine’s favour.
However, a breach in the frontline in the strategically important Donetsk region this week has triggered a backlash against the leadership in Kyiv, with critics arguing Ukraine’s positions were weakened by the redeployment of thousands of battle-hardened Ukrainian troops to the Kursk operation.
Russian forces are closing in on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk taking several nearby towns this week and forcing undermanned Ukrainian units to retreat from prepared defensive positions.
Pokrovsk is one of two key rail and road junctions in the Donetsk region and its loss would threaten the entire region’s logistics for Ukraine’s military, according to Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analytical group.
Satellite imagery analysed by open-source investigators at the Finland-based Black Bird Group shows Russian forces now just 8km from Pokrovsk. In response, local authorities have ordered the evacuation of residents in the area.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst at the Kyiv-based Information Resistance group, called the situation on the eastern edge of Pokrovsk “a complete defensive failure”.
“It’s not the fault of ordinary soldiers holding positions,” he wrote on Telegram. “The problem lies with those who make decisions for these soldiers,” he added, pointing to Ukraine’s leadership.
Several soldiers in the area expressed concerns about the defences around Pokrovsk.
Zhenya, a Ukrainian soldier in the 93rd Mechanized Brigade who fought in the gruelling 10-month battle of Bakhmut last year, described a fast-deteriorating situation in Pokrovsk. In a candid assessment on X, he criticised the military’s command structure, citing systemic failures and inadequate responses to evolving battlefield conditions.
“Honestly, I have never seen anything like this. Everything is falling apart so quickly,” he warned. “Pokrovsk will fall much faster than Bakhmut did.”
Ukrainian troops this week pulled out of Novohrodivka, 8km south-east of Pokrovsk. The Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS), a Kyiv-based security think-tank, said the withdrawal indicated a shortage of defensive resources, despite Pokrovsk’s importance as a logistical hub.
Mariana Bezuhla, an MP and member of the defence committee in parliament, shared photos on Facebook from a visit last week to the frontline near Novohrodivka. She claimed they showed the path to Pokrovsk wide open.
“The trenches in front of Novohrodivka were empty. There was practically no Ukrainian army in the once 20,000-strong city,” she wrote in a scathing post.
Gen Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s top military commander, said in a statement on Thursday that he had visited the Pokrovsk area and was working “to strengthen the defence of our troops in the most difficult areas of the front, to provide the brigades with a sufficient amount of ammunition and other material and technical means”.
During a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday, Zelenskyy described the situation on the frontline near Pokrovsk as “extremely difficult” but claimed that the Russian advance in the area had slowed following Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk.
In fact, Russian forces have advanced more rapidly in Donetsk since August 6 compared with the previous months, according to several military analysts, including Deep State, a Ukrainian group with close ties to Ukraine’s defence ministry that monitors frontline movements.
“There is complete chaos,” said Deep State’s Roman Pohorilyi pointing to the fall of key towns such as Novohrodivka and the looming threat to Pokrovsk.
In the past three weeks, Moscow’s forces have quickly captured more than two-dozen towns and villages with minimal resistance, including the long-held stronghold of Niu-York.
Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, attributed the Russian gains to a shortage of experienced Ukrainian infantry and the diversion of resources to the Kursk offensive.
“Ukraine committed reserves to Kursk, leaving fewer options to plug gaps elsewhere. Some of the more experienced brigades have been replaced by newer, less experienced units,” Lee said.
Soldiers who were mobilised this summer following the Ukrainian government’s new conscription laws meant to fill Kyiv’s dwindling ranks have been sent into the fray with little training or experience.
“They freeze . . . they don’t know what to do in real combat,” said a lieutenant whose troops are on the frontline near Pokrovsk. Many “turn and run at the first explosion”.
Soldiers in artillery units near Pokrovsk also highlighted a deficit in shells and a severe mismatch in firepower compared to Russian forces.
“Our shells are running out. We just don’t have enough,” said an artillery commander, noting that many resources had been redirected north to Kursk. For about the past month, his unit has had one shell for every six to eight fired by the Russians.
Russian forces, meanwhile, maintain a significant tactical advantage, bolstered by superior aviation and drone capabilities as well as in artillery, the CDS think-tank said.
Stanislav Aseyev, a Ukrainian journalist and soldier currently on the eastern front, warned of the possible “destruction of the entire southern group of forces in the region, not just Pokrovsk”.
He cited “a complex of internal reasons: from the planting of flowers instead of fortifications to the lack of understanding on the part of high command of the problems evident to every soldier in the trenches”.
“What can be done for Pokrovsk?” he asked rhetorically. “Unfortunately, the only option is to evacuate as many people as possible. I think the town will soon cease to exist.”
Frontelligence said the Ukrainian leadership could yet shore up the frontline by deploying new brigades or repositioning forces from other areas. But if Pokrovsk were to fall, it could pave the way for Russian forces to push towards Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, extending their control further.