2 mins read
The German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) are preparing for a potential hybrid attack by Russia on NATO’s eastern flank this February, reported Bild.
An escalation between NATO and Russia is expected as early as February, a Bild source said, referencing a secret Bundeswehr document.
The confidential document details how a conflict between Russia and NATO might arise, with events unfolding month by month. The culmination involves deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers and the start of war in the summer of 2025.
The Bild story builds a scenario for war that focuses on security and avoids specifics regarding the number and movement of NATO troops. The Bundeswehr’s “Defense Alliance 2023” scenario predicts that Russian mobilization will begin in February 2024, followed by a Spring offensive in Ukraine and an attack on the Baltic countries in July. Cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare are expected.
Tensions could peak in October with Russia moving troops and missiles to Kaliningrad (a Russian exclave in Poland — ed.).
“Border conflicts” and “unrests with numerous casualties” are possible in the “Suwalki corridor” (the small corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad that lies along the Polish-Lithuanian border — ed.) in December. 2024. Russia could repeat its 2014 invasion of Ukraine on NATO territory with Belarusian support, after the U.S. elections, when the United States might become leaderless.
The scenario ends 30 days after “D-Day,” when NATO, including the Bundeswehr, deploys significant military forces to the eastern flank. However, whether NATO will be able to contain Russia remains an open question in the scenario.
5 mins read
April 30th is an important date in American politics. This is the day 100 for the American President in the White House, and all attention will be on the reports of his achievements and failures. But nothing can be more critical than Peace…
6 mins read
Russia’s invasion has made ordinarily outspoken critics of antisemitism wary of criticizing Ukrainian Nazi collaborators
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Richard Sakwa has for many years been one of the most distinguished and insightful observers of relations between the West and Russia, and one of the leading critics of Western policy. In this talk with Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia program at the Quincy Institute, Sakwa discusses his book, The Culture of the Second Cold War (Anthem 2025). The book examines the cultural-political trends and inheritances that underlie the new version of a struggle that we thought we had put behind us in 1989. Sakwa describes both the continuities from the first Cold War and the ways in which new technologies have reshaped strategies and attitudes.
