What Does Russia Mean by, “Demilitarize and Denazify?”

“The purpose of this operation is to protect people who for eight years now have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime,” he said, according to an English translation from the Russian Mission in Geneva. “To this end, we will seek to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.”

Official Washington and most military analysts continue to ignore Putin’s words and insist that Russia’s goal was to capture all of Ukraine. As my old friend, Ray McGovern, repeatedly has emphasized over the past three years: pay attention to what Putin says.

Demilitarization entails two key objectives. First, ensure the safety of the Russian-speaking populations in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson from attacks from Ukraine. Russia’s current position is much tougher than what it was prepared to accept in March 2022, when Russia and Ukraine reached a tentative agreement to end the SMO:

1. Ukraine would adopt a neutral status, abandoning plans to join NATO.
2. Ukraine would have limits placed on its military.
3. Western countries would be obliged to help Ukraine in case of future aggression against it.
4. Ukraine proposed security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5, with countries like China, Russia, UK, France, and Belarus potentially intervening militarily if Ukraine were attacked again.
5. The status of Crimea would be decided over a 10-15 year consultation period, with Ukraine promising not to attempt to retake the peninsula by force.
6. Discussions would be held on the status of Russian-occupied territories, with the possibility of a meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Putin to finalize these issues.
7. Russia agreed to “drastically reduce” military activity near Kyiv to facilitate further negotiations

But Ukraine, under pressure from Biden and Boris Johnson, rejected the deal and opted to continue the war. Russia then moved to secure its control of Kherson and Zaporozhye, by holding a referendum, which resulted in all four oblasts becoming full-members of the Russian Federation. Those four, along with Crimea, are now part of Russia. This is no longer open to negotiation.

Second, destroy the ability of the Ukrainian military to pose a threat to Russia. This means the defeat of the Ukrainian army and the destruction of its ability to launch air strikes and missiles into Russian territory. This means ending NATO support for Ukraine, which includes an end to joint-NATO / Ukraine military exercises and the sale of military equipment. This also is a non-negotiable term for Russia.

An unexpected, but not unwelcome result of the SMO, is that Russia’s destruction of Ukraine’s military has drained NATO’s ability to supply the weapons and ammunition required to sustain combat operations in Ukraine. Ukraine has depleted NATO’s supply of ATACMs and decimated NATO’s stocks of tanks and armored personnel carriers. Unless the United States and NATO call a halt to providing military assistance to Ukraine, Russia will continue its offensive until the Ukrainian military implodes.

What does it mean to, denazify? Ukraine, if it wants to continue to exist as a nation (though shorn of significant portions of its territory), must hold new elections without the neo-Nazi elements that have kept Zelensky in power. This likely will include a requirement to draft a new constitution that proscribes extremist groups from being able to organize and participate in government. Books celebrating Stephen Bandera will be prohibited. I believe this also in a non-negotiable issue for Russia.

Western analysts and politicians are slowly coming to the realization of Ukraine’s staggering losses. According the the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD), Ukraine has suffered more than 600,000 casualties — killed and wounded — since January 1, 2024. Total casualties — per the MOD — are more than one million since February 2022. Ukraine does not have a recruitment and training regimen in place to replace these losses and will continue to bleed-out the longer the war continues.