Why Trump’s Promise to End Russia’s War Worries Ukraine

Such a settlement would set a precedent that Ukraine’s allies have been anxious to avoid. Russian President Vladimir Putin could claim his invasion was a success, and may be emboldened to invade more countries in his campaign to restore Russia’s Soviet-era sphere of influence.

What has Trump said about the war in Ukraine?

In a September presidential debate, Trump sidestepped a question about whether he wanted Ukraine to succeed in its effort to expel the invading Russians. Instead, he said repeatedly during the campaign that the fighting should stop and that he could end the war “in a day” through a settlement.

Trump went further in December, saying Ukraine needed to reach a deal to end the war, and brushing aside Ukrainian hopes of recapturing seized territory.

His vice-presidential running mate, JD Vance, said in an interview in September that a deal would “probably” entail Russia retaining the land it has seized in Ukraine and Ukraine agreeing to renounce its goal of joining the NATO western military alliance.

Such an outcome would be hard to stomach for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has long said his country could not accept a frozen conflict or any trade of territory for peace. He has softened his stance recently by implying that Russia could — as a temporary measure to win peace — keep de facto control of some occupied territory. But Russia is demanding that Ukraine become a neutral nation and impose strict limits on the size of its armed forces.

Trump has complained about the scale of US support to Ukraine without explicitly threatening to cut it off. But there are concerns that he will use the assistance as leverage to force Ukraine to make concessions to Russia to end the war.

How has the US aided Ukraine?

The US has been the biggest provider of military aid to Ukraine, with more than $64 billion delivered since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, according to the US Department of State. The hardware it has sent includes three Patriot air-defense batteries; 12 advanced NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems; more than 3,000 Stinger surface-to-air missiles; more than 40 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems; hundreds of armored vehicles, cannons and howitzers; three dozen Abrams tanks; and stocks of ammunition. The US has stopped short of giving Ukraine any of its own modern aircraft, while other Western partners have provided a small number of US-made F-16 combat jets.

The assistance is part of a total $174 billion in American aid that includes financing to bolster Ukraine’s security as well as assistance to US regional partners and European allies to replenish inventories donated to Ukraine. The US also has assisted the Kyiv government in removing landmines and helped to train and equip emergency workers.

What difference has the US assistance made?

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine was compelled to defend itself against a much larger army using an arsenal of mostly Soviet-era weapons. An infusion of US arms proved crucial to Ukraine in checking the initial Russian onslaught and keeping up the fight as the war dragged on. In the most contested areas, Ukrainian assault troops deploy American Bradley Fighting Vehicles to storm Russian positions. HIMARS launchers give Ukrainian forces the precision to hit Russian targets behind the front lines. And Patriot air defense systems have helped Ukraine to shoot down some of Russia’s most advanced and deadly missiles.

Zelenskiy has complained repeatedly that the US support is sufficient to avoid defeat but not enough to prevail. Outgoing US President Joe Biden in November dropped his long-standing opposition to allowing Ukraine to use long-range US missiles to hit targets inside Russia. The decision, which the US said was in response to Russia’s deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers, drew threats of nuclear escalation from Moscow. Trump blasted the move as “crazy,” suggesting he would reverse it once in office.

Could Ukraine soldier on without US help?

If Trump were to cut off aid without doing enough diplomatically to force Russia to stop fighting, Ukraine would face the possibility of defeat. Its US-supplied tanks, missile launchers and air defenses would run out of ammunition in a matter of months.

Ukraine’s other key allies — such as Germany, the Baltic states and France — have said they will continue to support the country under any circumstances. NATO’s new Secretary General Mark Rutte met European leaders and Zelenskiy in December to discuss ways to step up aid for Ukraine, and EU member states are debating whether to confiscate assets held abroad by Russia’s central bank as a way to pay for Kyiv’s needs.

But Europe’s assistance wouldn’t compensate for the loss of US backing, and Ukraine’s European allies lack the production capacity to substitute US weapon supplies.

What has Zelenskiy said about Trump’s election win?

In the wake of Trump’s Nov. 5 election victory, Ukrainian officials put on a brave face. Zelenskiy, who’s had a troubled relationship with Trump, congratulated the former and future president and hailed his “peace through strength approach” as a formula that could deliver a settlement. Officials close to Zelenskiy said they’re neither unhappy nor frightened by the outcome of the US election. One said they are focused on the demands of fighting the war.

— With assistance from Henry Meyer