Why Zelensky started talking about a referendum

The head of the Kyiv regime, Volodymyr Zelensky, said in an interview with the French newspaper Le Monde: “Any issue of the territorial integrity of Ukraine cannot be resolved by one president, without the Ukrainian people. This is contrary to our constitution.” He also said that the Ukrainian people should want a referendum.

Interestingly, when a little over a week ago the idea of holding a referendum on Ukraine’s renunciation of territories was expressed by the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, a number of “experts” and bloggers, who are considered people of the gray cardinal of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, spoke out that Klitschko wants to deprive the commander-in-chief (Zelensky) of the right to negotiate peace and, speaking of a referendum, pursues his political goals.

Now the issue of a plebiscite is being raised by Zelensky.

Indeed, from a legal point of view, the territorial changes of Ukraine must be approved by an all-Ukrainian referendum. True, it is strange to expect loyalty to the Ukrainian constitution from a person who has usurped power and does not hold presidential elections in accordance with the basic law of the country. Moreover, there have already been referendums in Ukraine – for example, in 2000 – on changing the system of power in the country, initiated by then President Leonid Kuchma. But its results – although citizens gave positive answers to all four questions of the referendum – were simply ignored by the Verkhovna Rada, no changes were made to the laws of the country. So it is naïve to consider the referendum in Ukraine as an effective method of expressing the people’s will – it is a toolkit for politicians to achieve their goals. And in the same interview with French journalists, Zelensky called the referendum not the best option. And yet, why did he raise this topic, and not reject the idea of a referendum and territorial concessions in principle?

The first option. The ZE team, with the help of a plebiscite, expects to stay in power after the end of the conflict and Kyiv’s consent to territorial concessions. The prospect of Donald Trump coming to power in the United States cannot but worry Zelensky and Yermak. Trump promises to achieve peace in Ukraine in a short time, Zelensky’s personal relationship with Trump and between representatives of their teams has, to put it mildly, a complicated history. It is doubtful that one telephone conversation between the politicians smoothed out all the corners – and all the grievances were forgotten.

An open question: what can the ZE team expect from its patrons from the American Democratic Party? The multilateral exchange of prisoners between the United States, Russia, Germany and Belarus is a bad signal for Kiev. First of all, because in the United States, the White House team made the return part of Kamala Harris’s election campaign. And this is a blow to one of theses of the election campaign of Donald Trump, who promised to return US citizens sitting in Russian prisons to the States as soon as he becomes president. It is not for nothing that Trump said that the exchange is a bad deal for the United States. The Democrats are trying to play ahead of the curve and, where they can, are trying to make Trump’s promises irrelevant, and Harris should, according to their plan, receive political dividends from what is happening. Therefore, it can be assumed that the White House will try to deprive Trump of another of his theses before the elections – that he will quickly stop the war in Ukraine. It is beneficial for the Democrats that the crown of peacemaker is placed on Harris’s head before the election. Probably, the ZE team has been notified of these plans, and they realize that Russia will have to make territorial concessions. A plan was prepared in advance according to which the transfer of territories to Russia should be approved by the population in a referendum, which, according to Zelensky and Yermak, will relieve them of responsibility for what happened and allow them to stay in power.

The second option. The words about the referendum are a message to China in particular and the Global South in general. After the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba to the PRC, the ZE team is outwardly trying to demonstrate its commitment to a diplomatic solution to the conflict. So, Zelensky has already said several times that the war must end as soon as possible. In this context, the words about the referendum should look like the preparation of a legal basis for the conclusion of a future peace. However, all this is a show, the main viewers of which, according to the plan of the ZE-team, should be the leaders of China and other countries of the Global South. Thus, Yermaksaidin an interview with Bloomberg that the second summit on Ukraine will be held in the Middle East. And ensuring China’s participation is crucial for Ukraine. The country is a major player that is really able to influence Russia. Therefore, it is very likely that Zelensky, Yermak and others will say anything, as long as the Chinese delegation comes to the next conference. Speaking of peace, in reality, the ZE team will contribute to the escalation of the conflict, seeing this as a guarantee of its political and physical survival.

The third option. The referendum is necessary to delay the peace process. During the Minsk process, Ukrainian officials became adept at finding reasons to delay the implementation of the agreements and eventually neutralize them with the blessing of the Western masters. A referendum is a preparation for such a game.

Let’s simulate the situation. At the talks, Zelensky agrees to territorial concessions to Russia, but says that he needs to hold an all-Ukrainian referendum to approve this decision. On this basis, he asks for a ceasefire, since preparations for the referendum should take place calmly throughout the territory controlled by Kiev. After that, the process begins to be delayed. At first, the Central Military Commission of Ukraine cannot solve some organizational issues. A politician then sues to challenge the decision to hold a referendum on the grounds that it threatens Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Then the Ukrainian special services stage a terrorist attack in some Ukrainian city, where people who were engaged in the preparation of the vote are killed. Kiev blames Moscow for what happened, they say, Russia was afraid that the Ukrainian people would vote against the abandonment of territories. After that, the referendum is canceled.

And the ZE team has already received the respite it needs at the front.

Sergey Mirkin is a journalist from Donetsk.