I hope you know this by now, but on Christmas morning the Russian military announced a sizable troop withdrawal from Russian territory near Ukraine. The New York Post’s Eileen AJ Connelly jumped on the story. At noon Saturday her piece, “Over 10,000 Russian troops leaving Ukraine border region after month of drills”, was posted.

This chapter will not end well for President Biden or Washington’s political class.

Pity the political scientist studying Russia. How does one analyze such a highly personalistic regime, in which key decisions are made behind closed doors and democratic elements have been squeezed out over the past decade? How should one assess the politics of a country that is a geopolitical outlier: the largest territory in the world, with borders from Norway to North Korea, and that has played a decisive role in every major European war of the last 200 years?

The Zelenskiy regime appears to have mastered no less than the authoritarianizing but still democratic Biden regime and the increasingly authoritarian Putin regime the postmodern art of artificial reality or ‘simulacra’ in politics. The simulacra in politics is compounding and is compounded by the all too concrete realities of war in Donbass and potentially Ukraine and its environs more broadly. The new case of simulacra is perhaps not surprising in that Zelenskiy spent most of his adult life living in dinosaur media unreality, specifically television acting. Zelenskiy’s television virtual reality was comedy; his political simulacra is becming tragedy.

In the past couple of days, my peers in the community of Russia analysts have addressed the question of “what if” – what is it that Russia can and may do if the negotiations with the United States over its draft Treaties on security in Europe fail within the very short time period the Russians have set, apparently one month. Parenthetically, I am amused that spokesmen for the U.S. State Department say that they may enter into talks with the Russians some time in January. It seems they did not catch the short timeline the Russians have set or mistakenly believe it was a bluff.

“Get off our front porch. Get out of our front yard. And stay out of our backyard.”

President Biden and other administration officials have stated emphatically on multiple occasions that the United States is firmly committed to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. In his April 2, 2021, telephone call with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky, Biden affirmed “the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea.”

Russia and the West have sounded the alarm in past weeks over a standoff across the border with Ukraine. Both sides accuse each other of inflaming the situation, and it’s increasingly clear they see the conflict very differently.

No global structure of peace can be stable and secure unless all parties recognize others’ legitimate security interests. If the brewing crises over Ukraine and Taiwan are to be resolved peacefully, the major powers will need to pause and consider the strategic perspectives of the other side.

Ukraine as debacle-in-waiting.