Pessimism pervades Kyiv and Washington about Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as President Volodymr Zelensky tries to steer his country through the war’s third winter.

I started listening to George Beebe a few years ago when he was warning about tensions in Ukraine, the real risk of escalation to nuclear war and the dangers of groupthink. Back in 2021 he assessed that Russia was likely to invade Ukraine given the combination of the US’s determination to bring the country into NATO and the fact that it was a “now-or-never moment” for Moscow to stop this happening. Years earlier, US Ambassador to Moscow, and now CIA director, William Burns had urgently cabled Washington to warn that the Russians regarded Ukraine as ‘the reddest of red lines’:

Russia seized most Ukrainian land last week of the year so far. Poll shows more Ukrainians now favor peace talks with Russia.

The West is no longer capable of waging a real war, says French historian Emmanuel Todd. In an interview, he predicts that Putin is seeking regime change in Kiev. He does not believe that Russia will attack other countries.

Progress has been slow but it is relentless. Russia’s army has been advancing at several points along the Ukrainian war front for weeks now, gobbling up territory one village at a time.

A river runs through Russian and, more recently, Ukrainian history. Ironically enough, the Dnieper River that unites Russia and Ukraine in this and other ways – the river rises in the Valdai Hills of Smolensk, Russia and runs through Belarus and Ukraine – is now the focus of the greatest schism in the history of Russian-Ukrainian relations. Russian forces appear impossible to stop and will arrive at the Dnieper at some point along its snaking length no later than next year, with Russian troops perhaps controlling the river’s and the country’s Left Bank by then. Russia – as well as the West and whatever remains of Ukraine‘s Maidan regime will then face some serious decisions.

Ukraine is confronting a deteriorating situation in the eastern Donetsk region as Russian forces make significant advances, marking some of their fastest progress since the summer of 2022, according to experts and open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts.

For much of the past year, Russian troops launched bloody assaults on Ukrainian positions that often yielded only limited gains. But the relentless attacks are now starting to pay off: In October, Russia made its largest territorial gains since the summer of 2022, as Ukrainian lines buckled under sustained pressure.

Russia is slicing through Ukrainian defences in parts of the battlefield

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — There is no doubt that the U.S. election will determine the trajectory of the war in Ukraine.