Russians Are Cautiously Optimistic About Rapid U.S. Policy Shift

After three years of American efforts to isolate Russia, U.S. policy took a significant shift toward Moscow in recent days. Russian officials have cheered the change, but even they appeared to be caught off guard by the speed of developments.

On Tuesday, top-level U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia to discuss ways to settle the war in Ukraine and reset Washington’s relations with Moscow—just days after President Trump and President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone. Then, a war of words escalated between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, with the U.S. president calling him a “dictator” on Wednesday.

U.S. and Russian officials ended their meeting Tuesday without announcing a summit between leaders of the two countries, but Trump later said such a meeting could happen as soon as this month. On Wednesday, Putin confirmed the meeting could indeed happen that fast but cautioned that preparation was needed.

“We are in such a situation that it is not enough for the meeting to be just about having tea or coffee, sitting down and chatting about the future,” Putin said on Wednesday. “We need to make sure that our teams prepare issues that are extremely important for both the U.S. and Russia.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov sounded a similar note of cautious optimism. “There is a lot of work ahead, the first major step has been taken,” he said. “It is still early to draw conclusions from what happened. The momentum is very good and the approach is constructive.”

As the U.S. and Russia have taken their first steps toward restoring ties, Trump began directing blistering criticism at Zelensky, who has led Ukraine throughout the war with U.S. support. Zelensky had said any talks over the future of Ukraine that didn’t include Kyiv wouldn’t succeed.

On Tuesday, Trump accused him of starting the war and of postponing elections. Both claims echoed Moscow’s talking points. Russia asserts that its 2022 invasion of Ukraine was undertaken to protect its own security interests. More recently, the Kremlin has also claimed that Zelensky is an illegitimate president because the country has postponed elections.

Ukraine’s constitution bars elections during wartime. “We saw this disinformation. We understand that it is coming from Russia,” Zelensky said of Trump’s statements.

He said Trump has helped Putin “break out of years of isolation.”

Trump then fired back on Wednesday accusing Zelensky of talking the U.S. into spending billions on backing Ukraine in a war that couldn’t be won and amplifying his claim about Zelensky postponing elections.

Quoting Trump’s statement calling Zelensky a dictator, Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and currently deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, suggested he was surprised.

“If you’d told me just three months ago that these were the words of the U.S. president, I would have laughed out loud,” he said in a social media post.

Russian media outlets, meanwhile, have been trumpeting what they described as a severing of the U.S. support for Ukraine. A headline over the story about Tuesday’s talks in Russia’s Kommersant newspaper read, “Ukraine out of the picture.”

Vladimir Solovyov, a pro-Kremlin talk show host, wrote on his Telegram channel that the contacts between Russia and the U.S. mean that Ukraine has lost. “The game is over. The casino is closing. It’s time to pay off debts or shoot yourself. There are no other options here,” he wrote.

The headlines reflect the Russian sentiment that is likely lurking behind the measured official statements. “All that has happened, the meeting, the U.S. readiness to talk about improving relationships, the amount of disruption that this creates to the trans-Atlantic alliance, all of this is only enjoyable for Putin,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a think tank.

Abbas Gallyamov, a political analyst and former Kremlin speechwriter, said that the Kremlin hopes to convince Trump that he would profit more if he pressured Ukraine and embraced Russia’s position. “They are counting on courting Trump by offering him everything they can for him to turn his back on Ukraine,” Gallyamov said.

Such sweeteners could include Russia’s support for U.S. policy regarding the Middle East, China and Iran, as well as opening oil projects in the Russian Arctic for American companies, he said.

“All these things are secondary to Putin compared to Ukraine, which is the burning issue for him,” said Gallyamov. “For Trump, it’s the opposite.”

Another major hope for Moscow is that the thaw in relations with the U.S. would lead to the removal of sanctions on Russia. Russia has faced a raft of sanctions over its war in Ukraine, including the freezing of hundreds of billions of dollars of its foreign-exchange reserves, restrictions on its banks and sanctions on its economically crucial oil exports. While Moscow has been able to adapt and sidestep some of those limits, the measures have hampered its long-term growth prospects.

After the Riyadh meeting on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that “strong interest has been expressed in removing artificial barriers to the development of mutually advantageous economic cooperation.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that sanctions were the result of the war and “in order to bring an end to any conflict, there has to be concessions made by all sides.”

This has given Russian officials hope that sanctions relief is on its way.

“After yesterday’s meeting in Riyadh, sanctions may not be lifted immediately, but their spirit will fade,” Boris Titov, a senior Kremlin aide, said Wednesday.

It isn’t only the U.S., however, that has imposed sanctions on Moscow. In a reminder that Europe is still determined to punish Russia economically, European Union officials on Wednesday signed off on a fresh package of sanctions centered on measures against Russia’s shadow oil fleet, which Moscow uses to sidestep Western restrictions on its oil exports.

The EU will list more than 70 vessels from Russia’s shadow fleet with a decision expected to be taken formally when foreign ministers meet around Feb. 24, the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“We are committed to keep up the pressure on the Kremlin,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.