The end is near for Ukraine’s army in the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War over NATO expansion and likely for Volodomyr Zelenskiy’s iteration of the ultranationalist-oligarchic Maidan regime, the establishment of which accelerated Washington’s, Brussels’ and Moscow’s march to war. The resulting desperation in Kiev explains Ukraine’s seeming last roll of the dice—the Kursk incursion. It also explains Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy’s desperate appeals to Washington and Brussels to allow Kiev to use long-range missiles to hit targets deep inside Russia to its pre-2014 territory and his pie-in-the-sky ‘Victory Plan’ dreams. At the same time, Maidan Ukraine’s domestic political regime is fracturing in direct proportion to the failing front; a trend Zelenskiy hopes to arrest by weighing into the US presidential political campaign and intensify sentiment for Kiev.

The outline that has emerged in the press is a repetition of old demands.

Big Risks Outweigh Modest Benefits of Greenlighting Ukraine War’s Escalation

Moscow is taking advantage of Kyiv’s redeployment into Kursk region

The Pokrovsk front’s collapse was not sudden, and it is not yet complete, but it has been continuous and incremental since the fall of Avdiivka on February 17, when the Russian armed forces gained the initiative in the war in Ukraine. According to a detailed report by Ukrainska Pravda, published on September 17, Ukraine’s defence forces have been retreating almost weekly towards Pokrovsk since then, and the fate of the city hangs in the balance.

Contrary to the view of Beltway pundits regarding the sunny side or various alleged successes of Ukraine’s Kursk incursion, the Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy’s newest simulacra attack – substituting a fake reality for the real one – has led to yet another predictable catastrophe in the real world of war and politics. Zelenskiy’s gambit had no military logic behind it. Its essence was made up of a propagandistic/PR component and perhaps a terrorist element. It was a reckless, desperate last roll of the dice to overturn the playing board which never had a hope of succeeding. Not one of the goals stated by Ukrainian officials was achieved, nor was the unstated, potential goal of seizng the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant achieved. What was ‘achieved’ was a decimation of some of Ukraine’s best remaining men and materiel`. 

This is the inaugural entry in Tech and Tactics, a series of blog posts conceived by RM editor Ivan Arreguín-Toft on how military technology is being used in the war in Ukraine.

U.S. and European officials are struggling to honor their pledge to use Russian assets to aid Ukraine.

Some of Ukraine’s top army commanders questioned the cross-border assault into Russia, Ukrainian military officials tell POLITICO.

Propaganda & Proxy Wars