This time two years ago, two days into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and with Russian forces 30km from Kyiv, British defence intelligence published an update on the service then known as Twitter. “The speed of the Russian advance has temporarily slowed,” they said, “likely as a result of acute logistical difficulties and strong Ukrainian resistance…The capture of Kyiv remains Russia’s primary military objective.” Those frenetic moments now seem a dim and distant memory. Kyiv is safe from ground invasion. The front lines are far from the capital. Yet the mood in Ukraine is tense and uncertain.

It’s a cynical calculus for many in the West: Keep pumping money into the conflict as long as Ukrainians are the ones dying

After a key defeat in Avdiivka, Ukraine and its NATO sponsors handle a grim outlook with more deceptions.

The pendulum has swung in Moscow’s favor and last year’s Western confidence has disappeared

It is ten years, not two years, since the war in Ukraine began. And once you have grasped that, you can begin to think clearly about it. What is Britain’s interest in this conflict? Why do so many in politics and the media cheer for carnage that has devastated Ukraine, the country they claim to love and admire? What has Ukraine gained from it? What can Ukraine and its people possibly gain from it?

In answer to the question I posed yesterday – can Russia show that with the fall of Avdiivka it can press ahead westwards with convincing confidence? – yes, it’s shaping up to look in the affirmative. Now at least three settlements west of Avdiivka have fallen or are at clear close to falling and ahead lies Konstantinivka and Kramatorsk. Dima this morning February 25 reports that Ukrainians have not had sufficient time to develop robust alternative fortifications further to the West and at present are simply doing their best to hold Russian forces back in order to create more time to develop the fortifications they need, at least in the west Avdiivka area.

NATO is risking a wider war

For more than a decade, the United States has nurtured a secret intelligence partnership with Ukraine that is now critical for both countries in countering Russia.

U.S. Global Engagement Initiative

There is a curious wave of Western analysts’ opining, including earlier today from Col. Lawrenece Wilkerson, and also in a recent Quincy Institute paper by Lieven and Bebe, that concede that Ukraine is losing – Wilkerson goes so far as to say that Ukraine has already lost, and that every day that passes now will mean that it will lose more – and then go on to assert that now Ukraine must negotiate or must be forced by the Western powers into negotiation with Russia (with Lieven and Bebe insisting that in the meantime the West must provide more arms to Ukraine).